In 2017 my Website was migrated to
the clouds and reduced in size.
Hence some links below are broken.
One thing to try if a “www” link is broken is to substitute “faculty” for “www”
For example a broken link
http://www.trinity.edu/rjensen/Pictures.htm
can be changed to corrected link
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Pictures.htm
However in some cases files had to be removed to reduce the size of my Website
Contact me at rjensen@trinity.edu if
you really need to file that is missing
The SEC charged a cloud executive with insider trading
after he allegedly saved his brothers from $600,000 in losses ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/sec-charged-former-qualys-executive-insider-trading-allegations-2018-8
The Insane Saga of the Fake Saudi Prince Who Scammed
Miami's Rich and Famous ---
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/bjbnd8/the-insane-saga-of-the-fake-saudi-prince-who-scammed-miamis-rich-and-famous
Bob Jensen's Fraud Updates ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudUpdates.htm
Accounting Scandal Updates and Other
Fraud Between July 1 and September 30, 2020
Bob Jensen at
Trinity University
Bob Jensen's Enron Quiz (and answers) --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudEnronQuiz.htm
Bob Jensen's Enron Updates are at --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudEnron.htm#EnronUpdates
Other Documents
Scandal Updates --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/fraud.htm#ScandalUpdates
Bob Jensen's Enron Quiz --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudEnronQuiz.htm
What's Right and What's Wrong With SPEs, SPVs, and VIEs --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen//theory/00overview/speOverview.htm
Bob Jensen's Summary of Suggested Reforms --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudProposedReforms.htm
Revenue Accounting Controversies --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/ecommerce/eitf01.htm
Electronic Business Controversies --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/ecommerce/000start.htm
Bob Jensen's Bottom Line Commentary --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudConclusion.htm
The Virginia Tech Overview: What Can We Learn From Enron? --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/fraudVirginia.htm
Fraud References --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/fraud.htm#References
Fraudulent Dealer
Tricks: An Interactive DHTML Illustration ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudDealerTricks.htm
This includes a summary of ten unethical tricks of the trade by automobile
dealers.
Selected Scandals in the Largest Remaining Public Accounting Firms --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/fraud.htm#others
Accounting Education Shares Some of the Blame --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudProposedReforms.htm#AccountingEducation
Many of the scandals are documented at http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/fraud.htm
Bob Jensen's threads on fraud prevention and fraud reporting ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudReporting.htm
Bob Jensen's personal finance helpers ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Bookbob1.htm#InvestmentHelpers
My Latest Web Document
Over 400 Examples of Critical Thinking and Illustrations of How to Mislead With
Statistics ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/MisleadWithStatistics.htm
70+ common online scams used by cyber criminals and fraudsters ---
https://www.comparitech.com/vpn/avoiding-common-scams-schemes/
From the CFO Journal's Morning Ledger on August 26, 2020
The U.S. business of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries has been indicted on charges the drugmaker fixed prices on generic drugs, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Justice Department is expected to announce the charges imminently, the person said.
The Justice Department’s antitrust division brought the case in a Pennsylvania federal court, alleging Teva Pharmaceuticals USA engaged in anticompetitive conduct that resulted in at least $350 million in overcharges to consumers.
Fraud in the Time of Crisis
---
https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/issues/2020/aug/fraud-iq-quiz-coronavirus-crisis.html?utm_source=mnl:cpald&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=07Aug2020
Facebook: A precious
metals dealer that sold overpriced coins to senior citizens was sued this week
by the US federal government and 30 states for alleged large-scale fraud ---
https://qz.com/1749695/facebook-ads-targeted-fox-news-fans-for-shady-silver-coin-scheme/
Ex-School Employee Admits
She Aided Cheating on SAT, ACT ---
https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2020/09/28/ex-school-employee-admits-she-aided-cheating-sat-act?utm_source=Inside+Higher+Ed&utm_campaign=f845ea7b54-DNU_2020_COPY_02&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1fcbc04421-f845ea7b54-197565045&mc_cid=f845ea7b54&mc_eid=1e78f7c952
Tens of thousands of loans
issued under the government’s $670 billion Paycheck Protection Program are
vulnerable to fraud, waste and abuse, according to a report from a House panel
---
https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-panel-criticizes-lack-of-oversight-on-ppp-loans-11598981252?mod=djemCFO
Ex-DEA agent pleads guilty
to 19 federal counts in jaw-dropping corruption case ---
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/former-dea-agent-who-once-earned-praise-superiors-pleads-guilty-19
NFL Player Charged for Role
in $24 Million COVID-Relief Fraud Scheme ---
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/nfl-player-charged-role-24-million-covid-relief-fraud-scheme
West Virginia Hospital
Agrees To Pay $50 Million To Settle Allegations Concerning Improper Compensation
To Referring Physicians ---
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/west-virginia-hospital-agrees-pay-50-million-settle-allegations-concerning-improper
Over 25 years, almost every
book and map of value vanished from the Carnegie Library. How did the thief pull
it off? ---
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/theft-carnegie-library-books-maps-artworks-180975506/
How did a Harvard divinity
scholar fall for a clumsy archaeological fraud?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/books/review/veritas-ariel-sabar.html
A disabled veteran defrauded
donors and used money for a border wall to pay for this luxury fishing boat,
federal prosecutors say ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/disabled-vet-used-crowdsourced-border-wall-funds-for-luxury-boat-2020-8
Steve Bannon charged with
fraud over crowdfunnding
campaign for border wall ---
https://www.vox.com/2020/8/20/21377209/banon-arrested-indicted-build-border-wall-gofundme
Dozens arrested in
widespread ATM theft scam at Santander bank branches ---
https://www.nj.com/news/2020/08/dozens-arrested-in-widespread-atm-theft-scam.html
'Lottery lawyer' scammed
millions from winners in mob-connected scheme, feds allege ---
https://www.foxnews.com/us/lottery-lawyer-long-island-new-york-mob-scheme-scam-alleged
Dean Indicted for Kickback
Stealing From University ---
https://www.insidehighered.com/quicktakes/2020/08/13/dean-indicted-stealing-university?utm_source=Inside+Higher+Ed&utm_campaign=060f944599-DNU_2020_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1fcbc04421-060f944599-197565045&mc_cid=060f944599&mc_eid=1e78f7c952
Leading chemistry journal
has retracted a 2019 paper by a pair of researchers in Switzerland after
determining that it contained fabricated data. ---
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/08/18/top-chemistry-journal-retracts-paper-for-faked-data/
Consumer business professor
leaves Pitt after retractions for data anomalies ---
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/08/13/consumer-researcher-leaves-pitt-after-retractions-for-data-anomalies/
CalPERS chief’s abrupt
resignation preceded by conflict of interest questions ---
https://www.data-z.org/news/detail/calpers-chiefs-abrupt-resignation-preceded-by-conflict-of-interest-questions
Banking Regulator Fines
Capital One $80 Million Over 2019 Hack ---
https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-regulator-fines-capital-one-80-million-over-2019-hack-11596727367
Florida Doctor Charged in
Massive $681 Million Substance Abuse Treatment Fraud Scheme ---
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/florida-doctor-charged-massive-681-million-substance-abuse-treatment-fraud-scheme
Boulder Man Pleads Guilty To
Nearly $32 Million Bank Fraud Scheme ---
https://www.justice.gov/usao-co/pr/boulder-man-pleads-guilty-nearly-32-million-bank-fraud-scheme
MIT: Chinese and
Russian Hackers Were Sanctioned by Europe for the First Time ---
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/07/30/1005822/chinese-and-russian-hackers-were-just-sanctioned-by-europe-for-the-first-time/
USC-Children’s Hospital Los
Angeles researcher out following faked data probe ---
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/07/29/usc-childrens-hospital-los-angeles-researcher-out-following-misconduct-probe/
Commonwealth Edison
executives have admitted the huge power company bribed its way to lucrative
legislative wins in Springfield — and millions of customers in Illinois can see
the steep price they’re paying for it on every electric bill ---
https://www.data-z.org/news/detail/the-true-high-cost-were-all-paying-for-comeds-springfield-corruption
Ohio House Speaker Larry
Householder, 4 others arrested in $60 million bribery case: source ---
https://www.fox19.com/2020/07/21/ohio-house-speaker-larry-householder-under-arrest-million-bribery-case-source/
Ransomware criminals are
targeting US universities ---
https://theconversation.com/ransomware-criminals-are-targeting-us-universities-141932
Twitter Gets Hacked By
Twitter Employees; Uses Biden, Obama To Fraudulently Solicit BitCoin ---
https://www.blabber.buzz/conservative-news/951509-twitter-gets-hacked-by-twitter-employees-uses-biden-obama-to-solicit-bitcoin?utm_source=c-am&utm_medium=c-am-email&utm_term=c-am-GI&utm_content=2KvkcSGywrCfXsRfotUH4XJ8Trg..A
Throughout the history of computing and networking technology the biggest
security risk has been from insiders who are either fraudulent or very careless
Trudeau
Admits ‘Mistake’ as He Faces Third Corruption Scandal ---
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/07/14/trudeau-admits-mistake-as-he-faces-third-corruption-scandal/
Jensen Question
Having survived his "blackface" moment, this is more difficult to explain.
Toronto priest plagiarized
when ghostwriting for Canada's most senior Vatican figure ---
https://nationalpost.com/news/new-revelations-in-the-serial-plagiarism-of-a-canadian-priest-extend-to-his-role-as-ghostwriter-for-vatican-figure/
A
Canadian Province Killed 463 Wolves for No Good Reason ---
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/07/how-simple-statistical-error-killed-463-wolves/614134/
French
university rescinds researcher’s PhD after misconduct finding (data fabrication)
---
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/07/15/french-university-rescinds-researchers-phd-after-misconduct-finding/
McDonalds Sues Former CEO
to Recover Tens of Millions of Dollars in Severance Pay
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-10/mcdonald-s-sues-former-ceo-easterbrook-to-recover-severance-pay?cmpid=BBD081020_BIZ&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=200810&utm_campaign=bloombergdaily
McDonald’s sued fired ex-CEO Steve Easterbrook to recover tens of millions of dollars in severance pay. Why? The fast-food chain alleged it has evidence that he had sexual relationships with multiple employees, tried to cover them up and even arranged for one worker to get a lucrative stock award. McDonald’s also said it uncovered sexually explicit photographs in Easterbrook’s corporate email account and other evidence of the additional affairs following an anonymous tip last month.
BLM Protesters Target
Georgetown CVS Because Employees Called Police on Shoplifters ---
https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/09/blm-protesters-target-georgetown-cvs-because-employees-called-police-on-shoplifters/
Publisher retracts nearly
two dozen articles, blocks nearly three dozen more, from alias-employing author
who plagiarized ---
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/09/17/publisher-retracts-nearly-two-dozen-articles-blocks-nearly-three-dozen-more-from-alias-employing-author-who-plagiarized/
Current and past editions of my blog called Fraud
Updates ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudUpdates.htm
CalPERS --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CalPERS
CalPERS Cooks Its Books ---
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/09/calpers-cooks-its-books-grossly-understated-investment-consultant-meketas-expenses-in-annual-financials-made-a-criminal-false-account-by-burying-the-cost.html
Francine McKenna, an accounting expert and adjunct professor at American University in Washington D.C., confirmed our concerns about the misclassification of the Meketa charges:
It’s either intentional manipulation of the books or a level of incompetence and sloppiness that is inexcusable for an entity of this size with so many highly paid professionals and consultants involved.
If this excuse for the inability to track the Meketa payments is accurate, it’s an admission that CalPERS has been making false accounts, which is a violation of the California Penal Code section 424. Given the magnitude of either the omission or the deliberate misclassification in combination with the fact that CalPERS is rated by Moodys, which presumably relies on the information in the CAFR, this abuse could rise to the level of a fraud.1
This reporting deficiency is troubling since it calls into question the integrity of CalPERS’ accounting and record-keeping. But perhaps this is not surprising. Most of the CAFR, including the “Other Supplementary Information” section in which outside vendor costs and CalPERS’ investment overhead fall, is unaudited. As we have pointed out, the entire investment section of CalPERS’ financials, including the valuation of its assets, is not audited either (see the auditor’s letter starting on page 17 to confirm).
Continued in article
Bob Jensen's threads on book
cooking and creative accounting ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/theory02.htm#Manipulation
Cryptocurrency --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency
North Korean hackers steal
billions in cryptocurrency. How do they turn it into real cash?
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/09/10/1008282/north-korea-hackers-money-laundering-cryptocurrency-bitcoin/
Department of Justice
Announces Charges of North Korean and Malaysia Nationals for Bank Fraud, Money
Laundering and North Korea Sanctions Violations ---
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/department-justice-announces-charges-north-korean-and-malaysia-nationals-bank-fraud-money
One Difference Between China and Illinois is That Illinois Does Not Prosper With Corruption
High-ranking Chicago Public
Schools official charged with lying to FBI in contract probe ---
https://www.data-z.org/news/detail/high-ranking-chicago-public-schools-official-charged-with-lying-to-fbi-in-contract-probe
A top aide to Chicago Public Schools CEO Janice Jackson has been charged with lying to the FBI about whether he passed secret bid information about a massive $1 billion custodial contract to a lobbyist working for one of the bidders.
Big Chicago building owners
sue ComEd over alleged Madigan bribery scheme ---
https://www.data-z.org/news/detail/big-chicago-building-owners-sue-comed-over-alleged-madigan-bribery-scheme
A group of Chicago commercial property owners, including the owners of the historic Burnham Center, have added their names to the growing list of businesses and individuals suing electrical utility ComEd over its role in a bribery scandal that has implicated Illinois House Speaker and Democratic Party Chairman Michael Madigan.
Illinois politicians promise
generous retirement benefits to the unions, and the unions work the precincts to
elect the politicians, some of whom use their offices to amass wealth and power.
And who pays the bill?
https://www.data-z.org/news/detail/how-much-do-you-trust-pritzkers-fair-tax-heres-a-way-to-prove-it
Why China Prospered With
Corruption ---
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/08/why-china-prospered-with-corruption.html
A Russian national allegedly
offered a Tesla employee $1 million to introduce malware onto the company's
network ---
https://www.newsweek.com/elon-musk-russian-ransomware-attack-tesla-1528524
Jensen Comment
These types of hacks using insiders are the hardest to prevent.
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. (Herbalife),
a U.S.-based publicly traded global nutrition company, has agreed to pay total
penalties of more than $122 million to resolve the government’s investigation
into violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) ---
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/herbalife-nutrition-ltd-agrees-pay-over-122-million-resolve-fcpa-case
Bob
Jensen's Fraud Updates ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudUpdates.htm
Justice Department Finds Yale Illegally Discriminates Against Asians and
Whites in Undergraduate Admissions in Violation of Federal Civil-Rights Laws ---
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-finds-yale-illegally-discriminates-against-asians-and-whites-undergraduate
IRS updates annual Dirty Dozen tax schemes for 2020 ---
https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2020/jul/tax-scams-irs-dirty-dozen-2020.html?utm_source=mnl:cpald&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20Jul2020
From the CFO Journal's Morning Ledger on August 5, 2020
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the circumstances around Eastman Kodak’s announcement of a $765 million government loan to make drugs at its U.S. factories, according to people familiar with the matter.
News of the loan last week caused Kodak’s shares to rise as high as $60, before falling to about $15 on Monday due to a dilution in the shares. Amid the heightened volatility, trading volume has surged. The price spike briefly produced a potential windfall for company executives who owned stock-option grants, some of which were granted on July 27, the day before the loan was officially announced.
From the CFO Journal's Morning Ledger on July 17, 2020
Good morning. Germany’s top financial supervisor received detailed warnings about deceptive financial practices at Wirecard starting in 2008, but repeatedly failed to investigate the allegations, raising questions about the country’s ability to enforce securities rules that protect investors.
Documents show the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, or BaFin, saw Wirecard’s former CEO as more trustworthy than his critics because he bought a large chunk of shares in the company at a key moment. BaFin also decided against assuming direct oversight of Wirecard, which could have increased its ability to probe the company. Wirecard recently filed for insolvency proceedings after it failed to account for $2 billion in funds.
Ernst & Young, Wirecard’s longtime auditor, in a separate case in China said its local entity Ernst & Young Hua Ming LLP bears no responsibility for Luckin Coffee Inc.’s 2019 financial statements and what it called the company’s fraudulent misconduct. Earlier this year, Luckin revealed that more than $300 million of its 2019 sales were fabricated by a group of employees.
The quality of audits by EY and other “Big Four” audit firms, including Deloitte, KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers, also is under scrutiny in the U.K. The country’s accounting regulator said earlier this week audit quality has deteriorated further.
Florida CPAs can continue to practice without any continuing professional
education credits according to a new state law that eliminates any licensing
requirements for 30+ other professions like architects ---
https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2020/1193/BillText/er/PDF
Jensen Comment
I'm not sure avoiding CPE is good advice for CPAs who may one day want to
perform duties out of state or move out of state.
I suspect CPAs working for many offices in Florida, especially multinational firms, will still have to meet their firms' requirements for CPE. The obsolete accountants can still work for firms that have no CPE requirements.
What happens when an international or national profession makes CPE an ethical issue?
Trudeau Admits ‘Mistake’ as
He Faces Third Corruption Scandal ---
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2020/07/14/trudeau-admits-mistake-as-he-faces-third-corruption-scandal/
Jensen Question
Having survived his "blackface" moment, this is more difficult to explain.
A Canadian Province Killed
463 Wolves for No Good Reason ---
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/07/how-simple-statistical-error-killed-463-wolves/614134/
French university rescinds
researcher’s PhD after misconduct finding (data fabrication) ---
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/07/15/french-university-rescinds-researchers-phd-after-misconduct-finding/
Current and past editions of my blog called Fraud
Updates ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudUpdates.htm
Plagiarism and Translation:
The case of the stolen journal ---
https://retractionwatch.com/2020/07/07/the-case-of-the-stolen-journal/
How much trade is dodging
Trump’s China tariffs?
https://qz.com/1874110/how-much-trade-is-dodging-trumps-china-tariffs/
Is the staggeringly
profitable business of scientific publishing bad for science?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/jun/27/profitable-business-scientific-publishing-bad-for-science
It is an industry like no other, with profit margins to rival Google – and it was created by one of Britain’s most notorious tycoons: Robert Maxwell
Bob Jensen's threads on this
oligopoly that loves to rip off college libraries with outrageous subscription
fees ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudReporting.htm#ScholarlyJournals
True Story: Was the Cardiff Giant the Greatest Hoax of All Time?
https://www.ozy.com/true-and-stories/the-atheist-who-pulled-off-americas-biggest-hoax/224907/?utm_term=OZY&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DD
v3 6.30&utm_content=Final
SEC Halts Brothers’ Alleged Cryptocurrency Offering Fraud ---
https://www.ai-cio.com/news/sec-halts-brothers-alleged-cryptocurrency-offering-fraud/
Current and past editions of my blog called Fraud
Updates ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudUpdates.htm
Ex-Beverly Hills Stockbroker Sentenced to 6 Years in Prison for Role in $215
Million Portfolio-Pumping Stock Manipulation Scheme ---
https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/ex-beverly-hills-stockbroker-sentenced-6-years-prison-role-215-million-portfolio
Alibaba has fired leading exec Zhao Yan. He helped his girlfriend secure a
high-paying job and accepted gifts from business partners, the company says ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-tech-giant-alibaba-dismisses-livestreaming-head-citing-nepotism-gifts-document-2020-7
FBI Nabs Decadent Nigerian Scammer 'Hushpuppi' for Massive Cybercrimes ---
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/stephen-green/2020/07/03/wow-fbi-brings-in-decadent-nigerian-scammer-hushpuppi-for-100s-of-millions-in-cybercrime-n603192
In a remote area of Papua, a box of instant noodles costs 2 grams of gold
---
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/07/03/in-a-remote-area-of-papua-a-box-of-instant-noodles-costs-2-grams-of-gold.html
Jensen Comment
This illustrates how markets get complicated when remote tribes have increased
demand for goods (think cell phones and instant noodles) manufactured far away.
Either they must have something to trade (e.g., gold or other natural resources)
or they must be subsidized by central governments. It's harder and harder for
tribes on earth to maintain hunter/gatherer economies in part because they want
more from life. Although Covid-19 is not a deadly pandemic such tribes are
vulnerable to some truly deadly pandemics evidenced in history. Disease
protections of their remoteness no longer apply.
Three First NBC Executives Indicted For Fraud against Failed $5 Billion Bank
---
https://www.justice.gov/usao-edla/pr/three-first-nbc-executives-indicted-fraud-against-failed-5-billion-bank
How to Mislead With Statistical Rules of Thumb
‘Dog years’ just a myth: New formula shows us how old Fido really is in human
years ---
https://www.studyfinds.org/dog-years-just-a-myth-science-shows-us-how-old-fido-really-is-in-human-years/
How to Mislead With Statistics
Americans putting off traditional goals like marriage, having kids for
financial security ---
https://www.studyfinds.org/americans-replacing-traditional-goals-like-marriage-having-kids-with-financial-security/
Jensen Comment
I'm sure financial security is a causal factor to things like staying single and
not having children. However, the biggest causal factor, in my opinion, is
reliable birth control. Back in the 1950s many people got married in order to
have better sexual relationships. Or they got married when unexpected babies
were suddenly on the way. Now marriage does not much change a couple's sexual
relationship for the better since in both cases they're living together. And
pregnancy is less frequently unexpected since birth control is more reliable.
It's not politically correct to say this, but equal opportunity in education and employment also contributes to changing goals for marriage and having babies. Think of obstacles created when one person in a partnership wants a better job thousands of miles away. Having said this I'm all in favor of reducing the local and global population growth. And I'm all in favor of equal opportunity in marriage and careers.
How to Mislead With Statistics
Surprising study: Urban density doesn’t cause more COVID-19 infections, even
promotes lower death rates ---
https://www.studyfinds.org/surprising-study-urban-density-doesnt-cause-more-covid-19-infections-even-promotes-lower-death-rates/
Crowded city streets, subways, and buses have been considered the most likely places to become infected with COVID-19 over the past few months. Surprisingly, however, a new study from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health concludes that densely populated spaces aren’t actually linked to higher infection rates.
Even more confounding, the study’s analysis indicates that crowded, dense locations are associated with lower coronavirus death rates.
In all, COVID-19 infection and death rates were assessed across 913 U.S. metropolitan counties. After researchers accounted for additional factors like race and education, the population density within each county was not significantly linked to infection rates. As mentioned, denser counties, as opposed to more rural, sprawling areas with smaller populations, were associated with lower death rates. The study’s authors speculate this is because denser, urban areas often offer better healthcare services.
Instead, higher coronavirus infection and death rates seem to be linked to a metropolitan area’s size, not its density. So, cities that are very big and stretch across multiple counties that are “tightly linked together through economic, social, and commuting relationships” appear to be most at risk of high coronavirus infection ratesContinued in Article
Jensen Comment
I think the issues is are more complicated than density (think population per
square mile). For example, the above study concludes that density does not
contribute to infection rates.
Could it be that the most dense populations vary in terms of lifestyles. Think
of New York City for example. It's extremely common for workers to move out of
NYC when they retire. And if they retire in a another dense area like Miami
their lifestyles change because they are no longer commuting daily over long
distances by public transportation to get to and from jobs. The public indoor
places of Manhattan and San Francisco are crowded many hours of each day
relative to the public indoor places of Miami and Houston.
My point here is that population density as a predictor of Covid-19 infections and deaths confounds many other issues like demographic differences, lifestyle differences, etc. But density should not be eliminated as a contributing factor.
Both the risks of infection from Covid-19 and the risk of dying when infected
are multivariate and interactive.
Except for age I don't think we can factor out any one variable (like population
per square mile) from all the other interactive causes.
And density is a continuum. Southern New Hampshire is much less densely
populated than Northern New Hampshire. And Southern New Hampshire is very much
less densely populated than New York City.
Density is a a highly variable variable
(both words intended).
Now consider the following map of New Hampshire where the state's highest
population density is skewed toward the southern part of the state ---
https://www.nh.gov/covid19/
Note that "50+" in the color coding
includes such large numbers as 800 and 1,800.
New Hampshire's largest city, Manchester, has a relatively high number of
positive test results for Covid-19 (in New Hampshire). It is possible that the
probability of becoming infected is lower in Manchester than in most other towns
in New Hampshire if density does not contribute to causation, but I seriously
doubt that this is the case in New Hampshire.
And it's possible that the probability of becoming infected in New York City is lower than the probability of becoming infected in Manchester, but I doubt it. But we will never know, because there are so many interactive variables causing Covid-19 infection.
The one thing I'm certain of is that people who move from New York City to northern New Hampshire at the present time have a lower probability of becoming infected.
And in the middle of the state my guess is that nursing home residents contributed to nearly all of the 6, 7, AND 16 numbers shown on the map below.
By the way, I contend that the Covid-19 infection rates along the southeastern boundary are relatively high because this is where NH workers commuting to Massachusetts (think Boston) are most likely to live in NH. These NH state line residents most likely were infected due to working in Massachusetts (think NH medical professionals who work in Massachusetts)