My Latest Web Document
Over 400 Examples of Critical Thinking and Illustrations of How to Mislead With Statistics ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/MisleadWithStatistics.htm

Animated  Visualization of the United States’ Exploding Population Growth Over 200 Years (1790 – 2010) ---
A Visualization of the United States’ Exploding Population Growth Over 200 Years (1790 – 2010)

USA Debt Clock --- http://www.usdebtclock.org/
The published national debt is a lie
Here's the real federal debt ---
https://www.truthinaccounting.org/about/our_national_debt

In September 2017 the USA National Debt exceeded $22 trillion for the first time ---
http://www.statedatalab.org/news/detail/national-debt-surpasses-20-trillion-for-the-first-time-in-us-history

Human Population Over Time on Earth ---
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUwmA3Q0_OE 

One reason is that many billionaires can afford to pour lots of money into high risk ventures. When's the last time you heard about a high risk (think Silicon Valley) venture in Europe?

Wikiquote from Wikipedia --- https://www.wikiquote.org/

Excellent, Cross-Disciplinary Overview of Scientific Reproducibility in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy ---
https://replicationnetwork.com/2018/12/15/excellent-cross-disciplinary-overview-of-scientific-reproducibility-in-the-stanford-encyclopedia-of-philosophy/

[Researchers] are rewarded for being productive rather than being right, for building ever upward instead of checking the foundations.---
Decades of early research on the genetics of depression were built on nonexistent foundations. How did that happen?
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/05/waste-1000-studies/589684/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20191022&silverid-ref=NTk4MzY1OTg0MzY5S0

Bob Jensen:  My take on research validation or lack thereof is at
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/TheoryTAR.htm

Tom Lehrer on Mathematical Models and Statistics ---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfZWyUXn3So
You must watch this to the ending to appreciate it.

And nevertheless conclude that the optimum amount of restriction of immigration is zero point zero, zero, zero? Amazing. Economics are generally skeptical models that yield corner solutions ---
https://www.econlib.org/do-you-talk-about-it-in-open-borders-yes/
Jensen Comment
To the list of questions I would add "Do your talk about the Tragedy of the Commons?"
The problem with open borders is somewhat related to the economic problem of "The Sharing of the Commons" where giving everybody the right to use a free resource leads to everybody losing that resource. At what point will allowing billions of people share in the free medical care, free college, and other scarce resources ruin it for everybody ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

History of United States Immigration Laws ---
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwGCkZzrvQkcFbRplBPwBFwmFDs

Open immigration can’t exist with a strong social safety net; if you’re going to assure healthcare and a decent income to everyone, you can’t make that offer global ---
Paul Krugman
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/724654-open-immigration-can-t-exist-with-a-strong-social-safety-net

History will prove former President Donald Trump was correct about Mexico one day funding an impenetrable wall --- to keep out over 2 billion starving green immigrants seeking to enter Mexico from the north.
Bob Jensen

Some Fatherly Words of Wisdom from Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Investments, to My Sons ---
https://jborden.com/2019/06/16/some-fatherly-words-of-wisdom-from-jack-bogle-founder-of-vanguard-investments-to-my-sons/

Milton Friedman:  The Lesson of the Spoons ---
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/08/spoons-are-in-aisle-9.html
Chopsticks would be even better

The Young Left’s Anti-Capitalist Manifesto: Its goal is to remake our economic system — and the Democratic Party ---
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-young-lefts-anti-capitalist-manifesto/

I have a complaint about America today, and it is simple: we don’t love business enough ---
Tyler Cowen
https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2019/Klingbigbusiness.html

The Amazon Rain Forest Is Nearly Gone ---
https://time.com/amazon-rainforest-disappearing/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-brief&utm_content=20190914&xid=newsletter-brief
Amazon rainforest fires: Everything we know and how you can help ---
https://www.cnet.com/how-to/amazon-rainforest-fire-whats-happening-now-and-how-you-can-help-update-indigenous-tribes/
There Are More Fires Burning in Africa Than Anywhere on Earth ----
https://time.com/5665794/africa-forest-fires-amazon/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-brief&utm_content=20190901&xid=newsletter-brief
If forests go up in smoke, so can carbon offsets ---
https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/13/20859156/forests-fires-carbon-offsets-amazon-california

"In Praise of Cheap Labor," by Paul Krugman, Slate, March 21, 1997 ---
https://slate.com/business/1997/03/in-praise-of-cheap-labor.html

Corruption in general has a deleterious effect on the readiness of economic agents to invest. In the long run, it leads to a paralysis of economic life. But very often it is not that economic agents themselves have had the bad experience of being cheated and ruined, they just know that in this country, or in this part of the economy, or this building scene, there is a high likelihood that you will get cheated and that free riders can get away with it. Here again, reputation is absolutely essential, which is why transparency is so important. Trust can only be engendered by transparency. It's no coincidence that the name of the most influential non-governmental organization dealing with corruption is Transparency International.
A Conversation with Karl Sigmund:  When Rule of Law is Not Working
https://www.edge.org/conversation/karl_sigmund-when-the-rule-of-law-is-not-working

Mortgage Backed Securities are like boxes of chocolates. Criminals on Wall Street and one particular U.S. Congressional Committee stole a few chocolates from the boxes and replaced them with turds. Their criminal buddies at Standard & Poors rated these boxes AAA Investment Grade chocolates. These boxes were then sold all over the world to investors. Eventually somebody bites into a turd and discovers the crime. Suddenly nobody trusts American chocolates anymore worldwide. Hank Paulson now wants the American taxpayers to buy up and hold all these boxes of turd-infested chocolates for $700 billion dollars until the market for turds returns to normal. Meanwhile, Hank's buddies, the Wall Street criminals who stole all the good chocolates are not being investigated, arrested, or indicted. Momma always said: '"Sniff the chocolates first Forrest." Things generally don't pass the smell test if they came from Wall Street or from Washington DC.
Forrest Gump as quoted at http://newsgroups.derkeiler.com/Archive/Rec/rec.sport.tennis/2008-10/msg02206.html

It is not that machines are going to replace chemists. It’s that the chemists who use machines will replace those that don’t ---
Derek Lowe

Gallup: Americans Say No. 1 Problem is 'Government,' No. 2 is 'Immigration' ---
https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/michael-w-chapman/survey-americas-no-1-problem-government-no-2-problem-immigration

"If you open the borders, my God, there's a lot of poverty in this world, and you're going to have people from all over the world. And I don't think that's something that we can do at this point."
Bernie Sanders
https://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-says-he-does-not-support-open-borders-2019-4

Great fleas have little fleas upon their backs to bite 'em, And little fleas have lesser fleas, and so on ad infinitum ---

Augustus De Morgan

Prior to 1980 what was unique about the year of his birth in 1871?
http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/Biographies/De_Morgan.html

Also see
 

The enemy is fear
We think it's hate
But, it's fear
Gandhi

Hermann Weyl born in Hamburg, Germany. He wrote, "One may say that mathematics talks about the things which are of no concern to men. Mathematics has the inhuman quality of starlight---brilliant, sharp, but cold ... thus we are clearest where knowledge matters least: in mathematics, especially number theory." ---
http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/Biographies/Weyl.html
Also see Mathematical Analytics in Plato's Cave
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/TheoryTAR.htm#Analytics

Almost anything can be preserved in alcohol, except health, happiness and money

A Brief Animated History of Alcohol ---
http://www.openculture.com/2020/01/a-brief-animated-history-of-alcohol.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+OpenCulture+%28Open+Culture%29

Georges Simenon wrote nearly 200 novels. Hitchcock telephoned one day and was told, "Sorry, he’s just started a novel." "I’ll wait,’ came the reply
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2019/08/if-only-georges-simenon-had-been-a-bit-more-like-maigret/

12 inspiring quotes from Martin Luther King Jr.---
https://www.businessinsider.com/inspiring-martin-luther-king-jr-quotes-2017-1

21 outstanding Warren Buffet quotations ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-21-best-quotes-2019-2
Also see
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-25-best-warren-buffett-quotes-in-one-infographic/

The Atlantic:  The Swiftly Closing Borders of Europe ---
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/12/europe-france-italy-immigration-border/578179/

History of United States Immigration Laws ---
https://rapidvisa.com/history-of-united-states-immigration-laws/

Italian Minister tells NGO Italy doesn’t want migrants: “Our ports are closed!” ---
https://voiceofeurope.com/2018/12/italian-minister-tells-ngo-italy-doesnt-want-migrants-our-ports-are-closed/#.XB6WCZMs_Xo.twitter

13 of the (alleged) most famous last words in history ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/famous-last-words-in-history-2017-10

21 of Michelle Obama's most inspiring quotes on work, success, and relationships ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/michelle-obama-most-inspiring-quotes-advice-becoming-2019-1

19 unforgettable quotes from legendary Marine Gen. Jim 'Mad Dog' Mattis, who quit as Trump's defense secretary ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/general-mattiss-best-quotes-2016-11

Here are the Ten Best Pieces of Advice from 2018 Commencement Speakers ---
Click Here

Sometimes the grass is greener on the other side because it's been fertilized with more bullshit.
Anonomous

The Lucretius Problem is a mental defect where we assume the worst case event that has happened is the worst case event that can happen ---
https://www.fs.blog/2015/04/lucretius-problem/

The worst form of inequality is to try to make unequal things equal.
Aristotle

The Economic Ignorance of Bernie Sanders ---
http://reason.com/archives/2018/08/09/the-economic-ignorance-of-bernie-sanders

Walter E. Williams --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_E._Williams
Walter E. Williams:  Fraud in Higher Education ---
https://townhall.com/columnists/walterewilliams/2019/12/04/fraud-in-higher-education-n2557348?utm_source=thdaily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl&newsletterad=12/04/2019&bcid=b16c6f948f297f77432f990d4411617f&recip=17935167

Money has been leaving China at a record rate. Beijing is battling to stem the tide ---
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/19/business/china-capital-flight-trade-war-us/index.html

MIT:  Our pathetically slow shift to clean energy, in five charts ---
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614917/our-pathetically-slow-shift-to-clean-energy-in-five-charts/

Jensen Comment:  Some of the charts are misleading. All "renewables" are not carbon free. Up here amidst a national forest "renewable" biomass electric generating plants burn wood chips with smoke pouring out of tall chimneys like they are coal plants. People are also burning a lot of "renewable" split logs in wood stoves that send carbon into the atmosphere far worse than my propane stoves.

The Nasdaq soars past 9,000 for the first time ever, fueled by Amazon's holiday sales boom ---
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/nasdaq-composite-hits-9000-first-time-amazon-sales-santa-rally-2019-12-1028785277

Watch it crash to almost nothing if Democrats win big in 2020

Famous Leftist Reporter Who Fabricated Stories ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Glass

Amazon and taxes: a simple primer ---
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/02/amazon-and-taxes.html

California public schools can’t suspend students for disobeying teachers, new law says ---
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3803751/posts
Say goodbye to order in the classroom

Maddow Argues (her) Statements on Air Should Not Be Taken as Fact in Response to OAN Lawsuit ---
https://www.blabber.buzz/conservative-news/734758-maddow-argues-statements-on-air-should-not-be-taken-as-fact-in-response-to-oan-lawsuit-special?utm_source=c-am&utm_medium=c-am-email&utm_term=c-am-GI&utm_content=9GHGkdpWhYe83EFyZJjkFO8_21LdfGwaVfyZOKuqu1nQ.A

Photographs:  The Decade in Politics ---
https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2019/12/photos-decade-2010-2019/603817/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=politics-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20191227&silverid-ref=NTk4MzY1OTg0MzY5S0

What an Independent Britain Could Learn from Singapore ---
https://mises.org/wire/what-independent-britain-could-learn-singapore?utm_source=Mises+Institute+Subscriptions&utm_campaign=c275d07530-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_9_21_2018_9_59_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8b52b2e1c0-c275d07530-228708937

Government Standards Are Making 5-Year-Olds and Kindergarten Teachers Miserable ---
https://reason.com/2019/12/27/kindergarten-test-standards-reading-math-teachers/

Prisoner’s Dilemma --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma 
Resisting Wind Turbines:  The Innovation Prisoner’s Dilemma --- 
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/12/the-innovation-prisoners-dilemma.html 

Warren Buffett is spending billions to make Iowa 'the wind capital of the world, the Saudi Arabia of wind' ---
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-invest-billions-iowa-saudi-arabia-wind-2019-12-1028787852

Anti Semitic New York Attacker Let Out Of Jail With No Bail Thanks To DeBlasio’s Bail Reform ---
https://www.blabber.buzz/conservative-news/735827-anti-semitic-new-york-attacker-let-out-of-jail-with-no-bail-thanks-to-deblasios-bail-reform-special?utm_source=c-alrt&utm_medium=c-alrt-email&utm_term=c-alrt-GI&utm_content=06zogopD0FR_-qkpQTYmRsUU8Iw..A

On Thursday Steven Haynes, 40, sucker punched a New York City police officer, pinned him to the ground and was arrested on felony assault charges. He was released hours after the attack with no bail

https://www.blabber.buzz/conservative-news/735827-anti-semitic-new-york-attacker-let-out-of-jail-with-no-bail-thanks-to-deblasios-bail-reform-special?utm_source=c-alrt&utm_medium=c-alrt-email&utm_term=c-alrt-GI&utm_content=06zogopD0FR_-qkpQTYmRsUU8Iw..A

Why make arrests for felony assault charges against the police in NYC?

Elizabeth Warren Has A Bad Plan For Everything ---
https://finance.townhall.com/columnists/mikeshedlock/2019/12/30/elizabeth-warren-has-a-bad-plan-for-everything-n2558690?bcid=b16c6f948f297f77432f990d4411617f&utm_campaign=nl&utm_medium=email&utm_source=thdaily

Braccoli and tomatoes emit more greenhouse gases than pork or chicken ---
https://qz.com/1777399/by-calorie-broccoli-is-a-bigger-carbon-emitter-than-chicken/
But pork and chicken are produced in containment feeders that are exceptionally cruel and probably not healthy in the long run.

Why Free Trade Agreements Aren't About "Free Trade" ---
https://mises.org/wire/rules-origin-show-why-trade-agreements-arent-free-trade?utm_source=Mises+Institute+Subscriptions&utm_campaign=84e143aef4-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_9_21_2018_9_59_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8b52b2e1c0-84e143aef4-228708937

The American Dream:  A family duo turned a side hustle selling traditional Salvadoran cuisine out of their apartment in Minnesota into a over $100,000 a month

https://www.businessinsider.com/family-turned-side-hustle-selling-salvadoran-food-out-of-apartment-restaurant

The Swedish Dream:  From Selling Pencils on the Street to Becoming the 8th Richest Man in the World ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/ikea-founder-ingvar-kamprad-wealth-family-net-worth-2019-12

Good Article for Student Debate:  California will require solar panels on all new homes.--
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/5/15/17351236/california-rooftop-solar-pv-panels-mandate-energy-experts
Jensen Comment
This article seems quite balanced on the pros and cons of this law in sunny California. It's a great illustration for students on how there are no easy answers to this controversial problem.
My worry is that this new solar panel rooftop law requires investing tens of billions of dollars in what could easily become obsolete technology almost overnight. For example, inventions that greatly reduce the cost of hydrogen fuel cells have will exacerbate disadvantages of solar power that falters when the sun is not bright. Norway and China are already betting heavily on hydrogen. And there are tremendous predictions for the nuclear power cost efficiencies of small generating plants.
Students might be encouraged to debate how this solar requirement would have different implications for other places like Maine or Quebec or Finland.

The Great American Tax Haven: Why The Super-Rich Love South Dakota ---
https://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/2019/12/the-great-american-tax-haven-why-the-super-rich-love-south-dakota.html

Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Montana, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Vermont and West Virginia are Expected to See the Largest Economic Contractions ---
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/nine-states-face-economic-contraction-most-since-2009-crisis-1.1368561

Gen. Petraeus on Qasem Soleimani’s killing: 'It's impossible to overstate the significance' ---
https://www.pri.org/stories/2020-01-03/gen-petraeus-qasem-soleimani-s-killing-its-impossible-overstate-significance?fbclid=IwAR1TRggBoSyN-la1qkv013IY2k4ZybZhXoA8KMlI-1ZYIUg-mi0tUoKhbYg

Why Sweden Ended Its Negative Interest Rate Experiment ---
https://mises.org/wire/why-sweden-ended-its-negative-interest-rate-experiment?utm_source=Mises+Institute+Subscriptions&utm_campaign=01545a67e8-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_12_31_06_15_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8b52b2e1c0-01545a67e8-228708937

Ohio Town Rolls Out Red Carpet for Homeless. Is Shocked When Stream of Homeless Show Up ---
https://pjmedia.com/trending/ohio-town-rolls-out-red-carpet-for-homeless-is-shocked-when-stream-of-homeless-show-up/

Jensen Comment
One problem when small towns welcome more homeless is that they can't usually offer much hope for medical care and overcoming homelessness. But they can expect more crime and poop on the streets.

Iran:  The almost complete Internet shutdown imposed over the weekend sets a new oppressive benchmark ---
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/19/opinion/iran-internet-ban.html
When Big Brother acts rather than speaks
This also shuts down the vast amount of free learning (think MOOCs, Wikipedia, YouTube, blogs, and daily news) on the Internet. Sure there are bad things on the Internet. Big Brother does not consider tradeoffs between good versus bad.

NYT Op. Ed.:  he Case for Killing Qassim Suleimani. The strike was justified and legally sound ---
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/10/opinion/soleimani-iran-tom-cotton.html

Why hydrogen cars will be Tesla's biggest threat ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars-teslas-biggest-threat-2019-12

MIT:  Australia’s fires have pumped out more emissions than 100 nations combined ---
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615035/australias-fires-have-pumped-out-more-emissions-than-100-nations-combined/

Will Australia ever really recover from this?

India Overlooks the Environment ---
https://qz.com/india/1783965/indias-missing-forest-policy-is-hurting-tribals-the-most/

The Grumpy Economist:  Wealth and Taxes, Part V ---
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/01/wealth-and-taxes-part-v.html

Democrats Nervous as 'Profiles in Corruption' Book Hits Market ---
https://www.blabber.buzz/conservative-news/745378-democrats-nervous-as-profiles-in-corruption-book-looms-special?utm_source=c-am&utm_medium=c-am-email&utm_term=c-am-GI&utm_content=2KvkcSGywrCfXsRfotUH4XJ8Trg..A

Amazon's Deal ---
https://www.amazon.com/Profiles-Corruption-Peter-Schweizer/dp/006289790X/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Profiles+in+Corruption&qid=1578744545&s=books&sr=1-1

Current and past editions of my blog called Fraud Updates --- 
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudUpdates.htm

“In 2018, Canada exceeded its goal of accepting 310,000 permanent residents by about 10,000. The target for 2019 was set at about 313,000, while 2020 is set at 340,000. (We’ll see if Canadians are down with that new, high level.)

Earlier this year, Australia limited its migration cap to accepting only 160,000 permanent new residents a year over the next four years, with its government emphasizing border protection.

New Zealand accepted 142,900 migrants in 2018, which their government considered a high number. Through May 2019, roughly 144,900 migrants arrived in the country this year.”

Continued in article

Jensen Comment
Of course the USA has a larger population than the USA but not many immigrants seek to enter higher population nations like India and China. And those nations put up higher barriers to immigration.

Portland Passes “Green New Deal” Carbon Tax, First Of Its Kind in the Nation ---
https://www.blabber.buzz/conservative-news/743404-portland-passes-green-new-deal-carbon-tax-first-of-its-kind-in-the-nation?utm_source=c-alrt&utm_medium=c-alrt-email&utm_term=c-alrt-GI&utm_content=4_IBzIGwv_cPJlMRU4kb7RWtLkQ..A

Jensen Comment
This tax that exempts some essential businesses like waste haulers. The city hopes to raise $30 million or more from big box stores like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot.

If this tax went statewide or nationwide the big box stores would most assuredly raise prices to pay the tax. It's not clear whether one city's tax will result in local prices (think Walmart) in Portland being higher than local prices in surrounding cities. It's hard to raise prices in one city alone.. For example, if customers order products from Walmart online and pick them up at a Portland store will Walmart add a pollution tax fee for picking up the items at the store? I doubt it. It's more likely that Walmart will move the store.

Or they might treat the tax as their charitable contribution to the poor and homeless of Portland, Oregon. These stores accordingly may give less to Portland's United Fund and other charities.

This new Portland carbon tax is tricky business since firms like Walmart have such thin profit margins. Walmart profits are based on volume of sales that add up narrow profit margins on each item sold. A given store's profit to doesn't add a whole lot of of profit to that worldwide profit. If you take away all the profit of a local store then there's no incentive to keep the local store open. That's probably why Portland hopes this tax does not seriously hurt the profit of a given store or that local prices of items will not be higher than prices of the goods sold outside of Portland.

It will be interesting to see how Walmart, Target, Home Depot react to this tax. I can tell you how they reacted to Vermont sales tax differentials relative to New Hampshire (that has no sales tax). All the new big box stores went to New Hampshire, with many of those new stores being in small communities just across from the Vermont border. On any given day at our nearby Woodsville and LIttleton Walmart stores more than half the license plates in the parking lots are Vermont license plates. The towns on the Vermont side of the border (think Wells River) have very few retail stores left and probably no gasoline stations. The only gasoline station in Wells River, Vermont has been boarded up for over a decade. The New Hampshire towns on the other side of the border benefit from high property taxes on the big box stores that don't exist on the Vermont side of the border. Chasing away the big box stores is like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

I repeat most emphatically that if the entire USA adopts a carbon tax similar to that of Portland, Oregon it's the low income and middle income customers who will pay the tax by way of price increases. The same is true for the green initiatives, Medicare-for-All, free college, basic income, and other multi-trillion spending programs being proposed by 2020 presidential candidates. The candidates may promise that the money will be raised from big corporations, but big corporations don't pay any taxes. They collect their taxes from customers who more often than not are low income and middle income customers.

Maybe climate change is so serious that a carbon tax is a good thing. My point is that the tax will be mostly paid by the low income and middle income customers, because there are so many more of those customers spending money in the USA relative to wealthy customers.

California Assembly Bill 5 --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Assembly_Bill_5_(2019) 

Everything contractors and freelancers need to know about navigating California's new Assembly Bill 5, which is set to drastically change the gig economy in the state ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-freelancers-contractors-remain-independent-navigate-california-ab5

. . .
How AB5 works 

Post Dynamex, every worker is considered an employee — meaning they're entitled to any benefits the company offers, and the company controls when and how they do their work — unless all three parts of the following ABC test are true:

A. The worker must be free from the hiring company's control in how and when they do their job.

B. The worker must perform work outside of the hiring company's core business.

C. The worker is customarily engaged in an independently established trade, occupation, or business of the same nature as the work performed for the hiring entity.

There are several occupations exempt from AB5, such as accountants, insurance brokers, and investment advisors. For them, the ABC test isn't necessary, but those individuals do still have to pass the Borello test, which has been in place since before Dynamex.

"The Borello test looks at 11 factors, none of which are determinative, such as whether their work is part of the client's regular business, the degree of permanence of the working relationship, and whether or not the parties believe they're in an employer-employee relationship," explained Alicia Calzada, deputy general counsel of the National Press Photographers' Association (NPPA), an organization that represents and advocates for visual journalists all over the country. They filed a lawsuit against AB5 in mid-December.

Under the Borello test, Uber and Lyft could classify their drivers as independent contractors because not all 11 factors had to be met in order to achieve independent contractor status for their drivers. The main priority was to ensure that workers controlled when and how they worked. Since drivers can choose when they pick up passengers and how long they drive for each day, this wasn't an issue. 

But now, thanks to AB5, Lyft and Uber are subject to the ABC test and must satisfy all three parts, which will be quite difficult for them to do. When it comes to part 'b,' drivers directly contribute to the core business. What would these rideshare companies do without drivers? And in regards to part 'c,' drivers likely aren't operating a rideshare platform of their own. 

As for freelance creatives — writers, editors, photographers, designers, and so forth — they can no longer submit more than 35 pieces of content to a single employer in one year. According to the new stipulations of AB5, submitting more than 35 moves them out of the classification of independent contractor and into employee status.  

Continued in article

California’s gig work law targets Uber and Lyft. It could hit taxis instead ---
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/California-s-gig-work-law-targets-Uber-and-14565001.php?utm_campaign=CMS Sharing Tools (Premium)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

USA Today:  20 Predictions for 2020 ---
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/12/22/2020-predictions-decades-ago-self-driving-cars-mars-voting/2594825001/

Jensen Comment
I don't agree that these are the Top 20, but you probably are not interested in my Top 20. Many of them are in my Top 20, but not all. I'm worried more about stock markets and pension funds, although my pension fund itself is in lifetime fixed annuities that are not going to change with stock price movements unless there is a complete capital markets disaster (think Bernie Sanders). 

January 3, 2020 reply from Professor XXXXX at Trinity University

Bob,

We ARE interested in your Top 20. I am, because I enjoy a lot of your posts; I am sure there are also those who will come back and gloat in a year if you are largely wrong!

Happy New Year,

Reply from Bob Jensen on January 4, 2020

I will reply in a limited way with my biggest fears that are neither predictions of what will happen or unique in terms of fears of most of us.

My 2020 fear is that civil differences will increase and become more violent due to rising hate and hostility fanned by the news media and social networks.. For example, if Antifa arms then White Nationalists will turn to sniper rifles and destructive drones. Our government and business leaders will live in bunkers in lifestyles that will turn away our most able potential leaders who do not want to become terrorism targets.

To date terrorists have been pretty stupid in target selection such as bombs and shootings in schools,  night clubs, subways, and office buildings. Exhibit A is the Unibomber (John Kaczynski)  who sent bombs to a few scientists in the mail. Exhibit  B is Timothy McVeigh who destroyed a Federal building in Oklahoma City and killed 168 people and wounding over 600 others.

Neither of the above two acts of terror seriously disrupted lives and livelihood of the USA as a whole. The Unibomber John Kaczynski could've done far more damage by blowing up research laboratories and researchers while they worked on college campuses and in medical laboratories across the USA. McVeigh and his allies could've instead put huge bombs on boats intended to blowup the supports of the SF Bay Bridge, thereby shutting down the major artery to Silicon Valley for years. And he could've put his bombs in luggage and blown up a BART train deep under the San Francisco Bay in a way that flooded the tunnel or in a truck going deep under the Chunnel connecting France to England.

Even one life taken in terror is a tragic loss, but far more people may be impacted by terrorism that causes massive disruptions in commerce. What I'm saying is that economic targets can have more terrorism payoffs than a relatively small number of human lives.

The brinksmanship media show of Kim Jong-un developing nuclear bombs and long-term missiles is stupid and fanciful relative to the damages he could really inflict in bringing down the USA. He could instead be developing biological and chemical WMDs and then paying billions in gold for cartels and militias to poison USA's urban water supplies, crop lands, supermarkets, and food factories. And if he's really insane he will do this while making the world think the damage is being done by Iran, Russia, China, Venezuela, etc.

My biggest fear is the next stage in evolution from army face offs on battle fields (think trenches in WW I) to aircraft bombings (think of the air wars in WW II) to guerilla warfare (think Afghanistan). In the past the armies were organized with chains of command that controlled both the destruction and the peace making. The next stage may well be destruction caused by hundreds or thousands of crime cartels and militias that have no central nervous systems. Taking out a cartel's leadership only inflames the future damage done by that cartel --- especially where the cartels are more powerful than the national armies (thin Mexico). 

Here's how Kim Jong-un could perhaps secretly bring down the USA. He'd subversively give gold to the cartels and militias and other hate groups to deliver the chemical and biological WMDs. If the USA blamed a world power like Iran then World War III might commence on a scale never known  before..

In summary, my fear (rather than prediction) is that headless cartels, militias, and hate groups will destroy the USA economy. But before that happens Bernie Sanders may have already  done that  job with tens of trillions in economy destroying taxation and social spending.

Aircraft carriers in the world will soon be museums while submarines threaten to incinerate the hungry and thirsty and sick people who can still stand on two feet.

My hope is the natural fact that parasites are usually more successful if they don't destroy their hosts. North Korea surely knows that it will not prosper if the free world economies go down. Surely Iran knows better than to destroy itself trying to bring down the USA and Israel.

What about my other assorted predictions?

Baldness will probably become a choice in physical appearance rather than an inevitable affliction.

I make no predictions about climate change other than state my belief that natural forces are too big for humans to turn around. Science of living with a changed climate will have more payoff than destroying economies to retard climate change.

I think hydrogen fuel cells will overtake all other forms of renewable energy unless there are huge unforeseen discoveries in energy science

Genetic improvements in human lives will be heavily resisted on ethics grounds, but one day science will win out --- but not in 2020.

In the process of providing affordable healthcare to all residents of the USA my country will reduce the flow of illegal immigrants to a trickle.
Leftist Trump hater Paul Krugman put it best:

Open immigration can’t exist with a strong social safety net; if you’re going to assure healthcare and a decent income to everyone, you can’t make that offer global ---
Paul Krugman
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/724654-open-immigration-can-t-exist-with-a-strong-social-safety-net

Restricting illegal immigration makes advanced economies duty bound to better share their prosperity with the less fortunate masses on earth.

With continued and improved economic prosperity will also bring greater prosperity for colored and well as whites, females as well as males, and people with different sexual orientations.

But the wrinkle I cannot iron over is the impact of automation on the labor markets at all levels (white collar and blue collar). I honestly think that the claim that automation will create more jobs rather than less jobs is overly optimistic ---
http://timharford.com/2020/01/book-of-the-week-1-a-world-without-work/

Great economic innovations are needed to resolve enormous future conflicts between humans and their latest labor-saving machines.

Goldman Sachs studied a century of history to nail down the 5 biggest triggers of recessions ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-risks-economy-historical-causes-over-century-goldman-sachs-2020-1?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_content=BIPrime_select&utm_campaign=BI Prime 2020-01-06&utm_term=BI Prime Select

1. Industrial shocks and inventory imbalances (less risk as the service sector overtakes manufacturing, but trade wars can be harmful for the short term)

2. Oil price shocks (the price shock of 1974)
3. Aggressive interest rate hikes (may be triggered by dangerous inflation)
4. Financial imbalances and asset price crashes (think the bursting of the subprime mortgage real estate bubble in 2006)
5. Fiscal tightening (not much risk of reduced government spending)

Herein lies the second and final source of new risks on Hatzius' radar: optimum decisions on tax policy and government spending — which make up fiscal policy — could be jeopardized because Washington is "plagued by dysfunction." Hatzius added: "This dysfunction has created new economic risks arising from events such as shutdowns and debt ceiling fights that can have substantial effects on financial conditions and growth." The hyper partisanship exists at a time of soaring government deficits. The implication is that even if the right fiscal policy is implemented, it may prove to be less effective at averting a recession.

Fiscal tightening (Cause 5) is more of a risk when the GOP controls congress, but it's certainly not risk under Trump thus far. Aggressive interest rate hikes (Cause 3) might be necessary if Congress starts taxing and spending so much for social programs (think green initiatives, Medicare-for-All, free college, guaranteed minimum income, open borders, etc.) that capital markets dry up and price inflation overtakes the economy.

Updates on Medical Insurance

NYT:  It Looks Like Health Insurance, but It’s Not. ‘Just Trust God,’ Buyers Are Told ---
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/02/health/christian-health-care-insurance.html

Canada will not allow spending limits on "essential health care services" ---
https://www.healthcare.gov/coverage/what-marketplace-plans-cover/

Jensen Comment
It appears that the USA is not as restrictive when outlawing spending limits in medical care relative to many other nations, although most nations may dispute what is defined as an "essential service" or an "essential medication." Experimental services and drugs may be declared as non-essential. Services for the very ill may be curtailed in most nations. For example, should an insurance company or government pay for new hips to a patient deemed to be dying from bone cancer?

Always keep in mind that insurance companies or national health care providers do not ultimately pay for enormous medical bills. Those expenses are factored into rates paid by other customers or paid by taxpayers.

Disputes often arise regarding how long to keep some patients artificially alive ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care

Parents Fight Canadian Hospital for Child's Survival ---
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/baby-josephs-treatment-sparks-controversy-pediatric-end-life/story?id=13032001

Bob Jensen's Tidbits Archives ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/tidbitsdirectory.htm 

Bob Jensen's Pictures and Stories
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Pictures.htm

Summary of Major Accounting Scandals --- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accounting_scandals

Bob Jensen's threads on such scandals:

Bob Jensen's threads on audit firm litigation and negligence ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Fraud001.htm

Current and past editions of my newsletter called Fraud Updates ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudUpdates.htm

Enron --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudEnron.htm

Rotten to the Core --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudRotten.htm

American History of Fraud --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudAmericanHistory.htm

Bob Jensen's fraud conclusions ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudConclusion.htm

Bob Jensen's threads on auditor professionalism and independence are at
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Fraud001c.htm

Bob Jensen's threads on corporate governance are at
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Fraud001.htm#Governance 

Shielding Against Validity Challenges in Plato's Cave ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/TheoryTAR.htm

·     With a Rejoinder from the 2010 Senior Editor of The Accounting Review (TAR), Steven J. Kachelmeier

·     With Replies in Appendix 4 to Professor Kachemeier by Professors Jagdish Gangolly and Paul Williams

·     With Added Conjectures in Appendix 1 as to Why the Profession of Accountancy Ignores TAR

·     With Suggestions in Appendix 2 for Incorporating Accounting Research into Undergraduate Accounting Courses

Shielding Against Validity Challenges in Plato's Cave  --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/TheoryTAR.htm
By Bob Jensen

What went wrong in accounting/accountics research?  ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/theory01.htm#WhatWentWrong

The Sad State of Accountancy Doctoral Programs That Do Not Appeal to Most Accountants ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/theory01.htm#DoctoralPrograms

AN ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION OF RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS BY THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW: 1926-2005 ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/395wpTAR/Web/TAR395wp.htm#_msocom_1

Bob Jensen's threads on accounting theory ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/theory01.htm

Systemic problems of accountancy (especially the vegetable nutrition paradox) that probably will never be solved ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudConclusion.htm#BadNews

Bob Jensen's economic crisis messaging http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/2008Bailout.htm

Bob Jensen's threads --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/threads.htm

Bob Jensen's Home Page --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/