My Latest Web Document
Over 500 Examples of Critical Thinking and Illustrations of How to Mislead With Statistics ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/MisleadWithStatistics.htm

Animated  Visualization of the United States’ Exploding Population Growth Over 200 Years (1790 – 2010) ---
A Visualization of the United States’ Exploding Population Growth Over 200 Years (1790 – 2010)

USA Debt Clock --- http://www.usdebtclock.org/
The published national debt is a lie
Here's the real federal debt ---
https://www.truthinaccounting.org/about/our_national_debt

Debt to GDP Ratio by Country 2020 ---
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/countries-by-national-debt/

Human Population Over Time on Earth ---
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PUwmA3Q0_OE 

Johns Hopkins University:  Updated Map and Table on the Number of Coronavirus Cases for Every Nation ---
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Accuracy is subject to wide margins of error for every nation and varies greatly between nations.

Covid019 in New Hampshire ---
https://www.nh.gov/covid19/

The best maps for comparing counties and towns in your state are provided by your state. For example, here's the map showing the distribution of cases for New Hampshire counties and towns ---
https://www.wmur.com/article/new-hampshire-coronavirus-map/32009329#
 

The Singapore Dream:  How Singapore's richest man went from welding in a factory for $14 per hour to owning a $17 billion hotpot restaurant chain ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/life-of-singapore-richest-man-from-welder-to-hotpot-billionaire-2020-1

One reason is that many billionaires can afford to pour lots of money into high risk ventures. When's the last time you heard about a high risk (think Silicon Valley) venture in Europe?

Wikiquote from Wikipedia --- https://www.wikiquote.org/

Kobe Bryant:  We need to make the most of every minute we have ---
https://www.newsweek.com/i-wont-take-see-you-later-granted-148449

Hermann Weyl born in Hamburg, Germany. He wrote, "One may say that mathematics talks about the things which are of no concern to men. Mathematics has the inhuman quality of starlight---brilliant, sharp, but cold ... thus we are clearest where knowledge matters least: in mathematics, especially number theory." ---
http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/Biographies/Weyl.html
Also see Mathematical Analytics in Plato's Cave
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/TheoryTAR.htm#Analytics

And nevertheless conclude that the optimum amount of restriction of immigration is zero point zero, zero, zero? Amazing. Economics are generally skeptical models that yield corner solutions ---
https://www.econlib.org/do-you-talk-about-it-in-open-borders-yes/
Jensen Comment
To the list of questions I would add "Do your talk about the Tragedy of the Commons?"
The problem with open borders is somewhat related to the economic problem of "The Sharing of the Commons" where giving everybody the right to use a free resource leads to everybody losing that resource. At what point will allowing billions of people share in the free medical care, free college, and other scarce resources ruin it for everybody ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

History of United States Immigration Laws ---
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwGCkZzrvQkcFbRplBPwBFwmFDs

Open immigration can’t exist with a strong social safety net; if you’re going to assure healthcare and a decent income to everyone, you can’t make that offer global ---
Paul Krugman
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/724654-open-immigration-can-t-exist-with-a-strong-social-safety-net

History will prove former President Donald Trump was correct about Mexico one day funding an impenetrable wall --- to keep out over 2 billion starving green immigrants seeking to enter Mexico from the north.
Bob Jensen

Some Fatherly Words of Wisdom from Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Investments, to My Sons ---
https://jborden.com/2019/06/16/some-fatherly-words-of-wisdom-from-jack-bogle-founder-of-vanguard-investments-to-my-sons/

Walter A. Williams:  The Nation's Report Card
How are K-12 schools doing under President Trump versus President Obama?
https://townhall.com/columnists/walterewilliams/2020/05/06/the-nations-report-card-n2568167?utm_source=thdaily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl&newsletterad=05/06/2020&bcid=b16c6f948f297f77432f990d4411617f&recip=17935167

Jensen's Comment
Most K-12 schools were probably doing better when I was a child than they're doing today. The downhill slide is greatest in the gang-ridden schools, drug-infested urban schools like Chicago and New Orleans. Throwing money at such schools is not the answer until life at home recovers. Finland knows this, which is why Finland's dads spend more time with school children than the moms or the teachers.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/dec/04/finland-only-country-world-dad-more-time-kids-moms

“In 1665, Cambridge University closed because of the plague. Issac Newton decided to work from home. He discovered calculus & the laws of motion. Just saying.”
— Paddy Cosgrave
Cosgrave, chief executive of Web Summit, in a tweet last week reflecting on the ramifications of coronavirus.
As quoted again in a March 11, 2020 Chronicle of Higher Education newsletter.
Jensen Comment
For Cambridge students in 1665 there were no photocopy machines for lecture notes, telephone, Web sites, video/radio technologies, and other online technologies used today for online teaching.

Milton Friedman:  The Lesson of the Spoons ---
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2019/08/spoons-are-in-aisle-9.html
Chopsticks would be even better

There are over 100+ trillion reasons for the demise of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders that the liberal media does not want to mention
Brian Riedl computed the added $100 trillion cost of Bernie's initiatives (not counting his free pre-schooling for every child,  the collapse of the capital markets, the loss of most USA pensions, and tides through open borders ) ---
https://www.city-journal.org/bernie-sanders-expensive-spending-proposals

The Young Left’s Anti-Capitalist Manifesto: Its goal is to remake our economic system — and the Democratic Party ---
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-young-lefts-anti-capitalist-manifesto/

I have a complaint about America today, and it is simple: we don’t love business enough ---
Tyler Cowen
https://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2019/Klingbigbusiness.html

The Amazon Rain Forest Is Nearly Gone ---
https://time.com/amazon-rainforest-disappearing/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-brief&utm_content=20190914&xid=newsletter-brief
Amazon rainforest fires: Everything we know and how you can help ---
https://www.cnet.com/how-to/amazon-rainforest-fire-whats-happening-now-and-how-you-can-help-update-indigenous-tribes/
There Are More Fires Burning in Africa Than Anywhere on Earth ----
https://time.com/5665794/africa-forest-fires-amazon/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-brief&utm_content=20190901&xid=newsletter-brief
If forests go up in smoke, so can carbon offsets ---
https://www.theverge.com/2019/9/13/20859156/forests-fires-carbon-offsets-amazon-california

"In Praise of Cheap Labor," by Paul Krugman, Slate, March 21, 1997 ---
https://slate.com/business/1997/03/in-praise-of-cheap-labor.html

Corruption in general has a deleterious effect on the readiness of economic agents to invest. In the long run, it leads to a paralysis of economic life. But very often it is not that economic agents themselves have had the bad experience of being cheated and ruined, they just know that in this country, or in this part of the economy, or this building scene, there is a high likelihood that you will get cheated and that free riders can get away with it. Here again, reputation is absolutely essential, which is why transparency is so important. Trust can only be engendered by transparency. It's no coincidence that the name of the most influential non-governmental organization dealing with corruption is Transparency International.
A Conversation with Karl Sigmund:  When Rule of Law is Not Working
https://www.edge.org/conversation/karl_sigmund-when-the-rule-of-law-is-not-working

Great fleas have little fleas upon their backs to bite 'em, And little fleas have lesser fleas, and so on ad infinitum ---

Augustus De Morgan

Prior to 1980 what was unique about the year of his birth in 1871?
http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/~history/Biographies/De_Morgan.html

Also see
 

The enemy is fear
We think it's hate
But, it's fear
Gandhi

12 inspiring quotes from Martin Luther King Jr.---
https://www.businessinsider.com/inspiring-martin-luther-king-jr-quotes-2017-1

‘Never Be Afraid’: William Faulkner’s Speech to His Daughter’s Graduating Class in 1951 ---
http://www.openculture.com/2020/05/never-be-afraid-william-faulkners-speech-to-his-daughters-graduating-class-in-1951.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+OpenCulture+%28Open+Culture%29

21 outstanding Warren Buffet quotations ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-21-best-quotes-2019-2
Also see
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-25-best-warren-buffett-quotes-in-one-infographic/

History of United States Immigration Laws ---
https://rapidvisa.com/history-of-united-states-immigration-laws/

New York Times Editor Admits Biden Sexual Assault Story was Censored at Behest of Biden Campaign ---
https://www.frontpagemag.com/point/2020/04/new-york-times-editor-admits-biden-sexual-assault-daniel-greenfield/

San Francisco Chronicle:  Serial Burglary Suspect Free Without Bail Despite Armed Crime Sprees ---
https://www.sfgate.com/news/bayarea/article/Serial-Burglary-Suspect-Free-Without-Bail-Despite-15220682.php

Why the low status of opposition to child abuse? ---
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/04/why-the-low-status-of-opposition-to-child-abuse.html
Jensen Comment
Pandemic lockdowns are most certainly going to make child abuse a greater problem
There are various problems that stand out with child abuse. The threat of prison does not seem to deter pedophiles who've either not been in prison or who've been in prison multiple times. Non-sexual abuse (think beatings) of children is exacerbated by the present movement to not arrest parents for drug and alcohol abuse that leads to child abuse. Children taken from parents are often not put into much better living environments, partly because of unwillingness of families to adopt older children, minority children, and children approaching expensive college years. Society would probably increase opposition to child abuse if there were better alternatives for abused children. Making abortions more and more difficult will most certainly lead to greater child abuse.

What Happens If A Presidential Nominee Can No Longer Run For Office?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-happens-if-a-presidential-nominee-can-no-longer-run-for-office/
Nobody knows if it happens close to the election date

1998:  “It was clear to me from the way she was answering the questions, [Anita Hill] was lying” about a key part of her testimony."
Joe Biden
2020:  “Not only didn’t I vote for Clarence Thomas, I believed her [Anita Hill}] from the beginning. I was against Clarence Thomas, I did everything in my power to defeat Clarence Thomas and he won by the smallest margin anyone ever won going on the Supreme Court.”
Joe Biden
https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/28/joe-biden-on-anita-hill-in-1998-she-was-lying/

The Atlantic:  Why the Coronavirus is So Confusing ---
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20200504&silverid-ref=NTk4MzY1OTg0MzY5S0

Stanford University:  Extended Results as of 29-Apr-2020 for
Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities
Cumulative Deaths Per Million Population (ranked)

https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/Covid/Dashboard.html
There are many sources of error. For example, as of May 6 Vermont reported a total of 52 deaths.  The above site estimates 77 deaths per million of residents of Vermont. Vermont only has 624,000 residents such that the 77 deaths per million is an extrapolation.

A handful of small states with relatively few coronaviruses cases have received an outsized share of the federal Coronavirus Relief Fund. Chart updated May 4. 
Move cursor over states for details
http://www.news12.com/story/42092591/states-with-few-virus-cases-get-big-share-of-relief-aid

Vermont’s Democratic U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy, vice chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, has worked for decades to implement all-state minimums for federal funding. “Regardless of total numbers of cases, states like Vermont have had to shut down, just as have other states, and the impact in states small and large has been devastating in many ways,” Leahy said in a statement.

Johns Hopkins University: Updated Map and Table on the Number of Coronavirus Cases for Every Nation ---
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Accuracy is subject to wide margins of error for every nation and varies greatly between nations.

COVID-19: Will countries with younger populations fare better?  ---
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WxaZtEAI5KtXri_W-mq_d5JQChUmpMi-sVXBTYzxqFg/edit

Why aren’t there more Covid-19 deaths in U.S. prisons? ---
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/05/why-arent-there-more-covid-19-deaths-in-u-s-prisons.html

From the CFO Journal's Morning Ledger on May 6, 2020
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings said it won’t be able to remain in business without a significant influx of money as the pandemic has halted global travel and battered the company.

From the CFO Journal's Morning Ledger on May 6, 2020
Beyond Meat said sales more than doubled in the latest quarter, boosted by increased demand from its partners and retailers stocking up on the alternative meats as food supply chains faced disruptions because of the coronavirus pandemic.

California:  The Variety of College Plans for Reopening ---
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-30/coraonavirus-will-change-college-life-and-learning-for-campuses-open-in-the-fall

In Defense of Landlords ---
https://mises.org/wire/defense-landlords?utm_source=Mises+Institute+Subscriptions&utm_campaign=d462677451-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_9_21_2018_9_59_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8b52b2e1c0-d462677451-228708937

To Avoid a Collapse of the Eurozone, Europe Moves Closer to a European Megastate ---
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgxwHNCzcMthHjFVHwWVlhTvWvzsz

This Pandemic Could Spark an Urban Exodus From USA's Most Expensive Cities ---
https://www.ozy.com/the-new-and-the-next/coronavirus-pandemic-remote-urban-migration-work-from-home/306587/?utm_term=OZY&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=DailyDose%20%282020-05-04%2013:57:13%29&utm_content=Final

Jensen Comment
Rent controls aggravate the problem since landlords are reluctant to invest. The sad side effect is that there will be less and less money to support urban schools already distressed with gangs, crime, and drugs.

It looks like it is 67% of all Covid-19 deaths in Spain were in retirement/nursing homes
https://twitter.com/jtepper2/status/1257227517204869124

CDC Data: Average Age of Those Who Have Died from COVID-19 in U.S. 75 ---
https://www.breitbart.com/health/2020/05/06/cdc-data-average-age-of-those-who-have-died-from-covid-19-in-u-s-75/
In Massachusetts the average age was 82.
In New York the average age was 73.

This leads us to question the distribution properties such as skewness that drives means more than medians. The data shown in the article suggests that the skewness is heavily toward older people who died.

Facing Economic Disaster, France Turns against Globalism ---
https://mises.org/wire/facing-economic-disaster-france-turns-against-globalism?utm_source=Mises+Institute+Subscriptions&utm_campaign=7d7e45462c-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_9_21_2018_9_59_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_8b52b2e1c0-7d7e45462c-228708937

Meet the Shadowy Accountants Who Do Trump’s Taxes and Help Him Seem Richer Than He Is ---
https://www.propublica.org/article/meet-the-shadowy-accountants-who-do-trumps-taxes-and-help-him-seem-richer-than-he-is?utm_source=pardot&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=majorinvestigations&utm_content=feature

Thank you Denny Beresford for the heads up
Jensen Comment
I imagine that, as Trump himself claims, he's being audited very closely by the IRS since before he became President. I can't imagine that the IRS over the years has been letting Trump get away with enormous tax evasion. This would reflect very badly on competence of the IRS itself at a time when the IRS is desperate to maintain an image off both competence and non-partisanship. I don't think the IRS will jail Donald Trump like it did Al Capone. Having said this, there are lots of legal ways rich people can minimize their annual tax bill --- although much of what they get away with is tax deferral rather than tax evasion. There are of course huge embarrassments such as the way the State of New York let Donald Trump abuse his charity trust while he lived in NYC.

The bottom line is that the left-leaning IRS probably is working overtime with their best professionals to keep the Federal taxes of Trump, Bloomberg, Soros, etc. in line with tax law filled with loopholes created by both sides of the aisle in Congress. What billionaire has made the IRS a favorite charity?

Cuomo Finds Way to Discourage Future Out-of-State Crisis Volunteers
New York was hit particularly hard. Now, those that spent more than 14 days in the Empire State will be required to pay state income tax, even if they’re being paid by entities in other states for their work in New York
https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/05/cuomo-health-care-workers-who-volunteered-to-help-with-covid-19-must-pay-state-income-tax/
 

ABC News:  US northern border illegal crossings rise; many are Mexicans ---
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-northern-border-illegal-crossings-rise-mexicans-70560039

Jensen Comment
Why doesn't Canada offer them better career opportunities?

The Coronavirus Truthers Don't Believe in Public Health ---
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/wxevj5/the-coronavirus-truthers-dont-believe-in-public-health

First Look at the CARES Act’s Provisions for Tax Relief ---
https://www.cpajournal.com/2020/04/29/first-look-at-the-cares-acts-provisions-for-tax-relief/

The Biased Media

Jimmy Kimmel Deceptively Edits Video Of Mike Pence, Claims He Delivered Empty Boxes To Nursing Home - Press Runs With It ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/jimmy-kimmel-mike-pence-carrying-empty-boxes-video-2020-5
Jimmy Kimmel Offers Smarmy Apology for Deceptively Edited Mike Pence Video ---
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/05/08/jimmy-kimmel-offers-smarmy-apology-for-deceptively-edited-mike-pence-video/

Fake News Alert: NBC Deceptively Edits AG Barr's Comments on Michael Flynn Decision ---
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2020/05/10/fake-news-nbcs-chuck-todd-deceptively-edits-ag-barrs-answer-on-flynn-decision-n2568541?utm_source=thdaily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=nl&newsletterad=05/11/2020&bcid=b16c6f948f297f77432f990d4411617f&recip=17935167

NBC Admits to the Decemption ---
https://www.foxnews.com/media/chuck-todd-meet-the-press-barr-flynn-edit

Israel:  Is Iran Really Leaving Syria?
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/is-iran-really-leaving-syria-627265 ---
Jensen Comment
With the USA gone as well, that leaves Russia to duke it out with Turkey

Death of a Quantum Man: The Suicide of Stanford physics professor Zhang Shoucheng ---
https://www.thewirechina.com/2020/05/03/the-quantum-man/

Nurses Have Always Been Heroes ---
https://daily.jstor.org/philadelphia-general-hospital-school-of-nursing/

Does COVID-19 Make Immigration Restrictions Necessary? A Soho Forum Debate ---
https://reason.com/podcast/does-covid-19-make-immigration-restrictions-necessary-a-soho-forum-debate/

The U.S. Postal Service 'Unsustainable,' Says GAO. And That Was Before COVID-19 Hit ---
https://reason.com/2020/05/07/the-u-s-postal-service-unsustainable-says-gao-and-that-was-before-covid-19-hit/

Zinc hope in coronavirus fight ---
https://www.telegraphindia.com/amp/world/zinc-hope-in-corona-fight/cid/1771935

ed

Trump OKs Huge Nevada Solar Installation ---
https://www.ozy.com/presidential-daily-brief/pdb-325760/?utm_term=OZY&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PDB%20%282020-05-12%2010:31:38%29#article325784

Pregnant woman, boyfriend killed in New York home invasion ---
https://www.silive.com/news/2020/05/home-invasion-slay-suspect-killed-man-in-92-steps-from-mondays-bloodbath.html
Jensen Comment

It's impossible to keep guns out of the hands of convicted felons

Chinese and Iranian hackers targeting US universities, healthcare firms amid coronavirus vaccine research: reports ---

https://www.foxnews.com/world/chinese-iranian-hackers-coronavirus-vaccine-research

When Government Programs Do More Harm Than Good ---
https://reason.com/2020/05/13/when-government-programs-do-more-harm-than-good/

People are furious at restaurants adding COVID-19 surcharges, as food prices skyrocket and businesses struggle ---
https://www.businessinsider.com/restaurants-covid-19-surcharges-spark-backlash-as-meat-costs-grow-2020-5

Grocery prices are rising as eat-at-home demand soars during the coronavirus pandemic ---
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/grocery-prices-are-rising-as-eat-at-home-demand-soars-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-04-07

Transportation prices are going to soar, especially when oil prices commence to climb again. You can't expect to take out the middle seats of airliners and expect them to fly at deep losses to absorb a third of the loss of ticket revenue on each flight. Our present airliners are oversized for the reduced payloads.

Why Home Prices Are Rising During the Pandemic ---
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/why-home-prices-are-rising-during-the-pandemic/ar-BB13C12S

The biggest cause of the price rises in the near future will be the printing of trillions in helicopter money circulating in the economy ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money
Printing little bits of helicopter money at this moment would probably be a good thing, but printing trillions upon trillions will be devastating. Liberal economists like Paul Krugman keep urging us on, and the media is not warning us about the evils of inflation.

Jensen Comment
A month after the above article about grocery prices was written the latest news on May 12 is that groceries are once again taking a huge jump.
You ain't seen nuthin' yet!
Af first there was surplus supply of food when restaurants shut down. Restaurants consume roughly half the food in the USA. As soon as these restaurants commence to open up there will be a surge in food demand that will increase prices even more. Workers going back to their old jobs will find that their old paycheck amounts won't stretch as far.

Added to this leap in pricing is the printing of trillions in helicopter money support dropped off on unemployed workers and new stimulus aid for businesses, hospitals, state governments, etc. Sure the media keeps spreading lies that these trillions are going to be borrowed by selling trillions of stimulus money to investors. But the fact is that there are no investors who want to buy these trillions of dollars in new debt.

Ray Dalio --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Dalio

Trump-Hating Billionaire Ray Dalio says investors would be 'pretty crazy to hold government bonds' right now as central banks continue to print money ---
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-crazy-hold-bonds-now-central-banks-printing-money-2020-4-1029095649
Good financial advice even though it's not very patriotic

Buyers needed for added trillions of planned US government debt ---
https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/buyers-needed-for-3-trillion-of-us-government-debt

China, Until Recently America's Largest Creditor, Won't Be Funding Your Stimulus Check ---
https://www.newsweek.com/china-treasury-stimulus-check-debt-us-1499541

Jensen Comment
Not many buyers want to buy trillions of new USA debt. So the Federal Reserve will buy it.
Hey isn't that like moving this debt from the Federal government's left pocket to its right pocket?
The least China could do is make some of our helicopter parts cheaper ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money                                                         

One National Debt buyer dominates all others --- The Federal Reserve (think of it as a debtor investing in his own debt)
But the Federal Reserve is "printing money" in a limited way (QE is not like printing helicopter money)  to buy much of the debt under the fancy name of Quantitative Easing ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

Jensen Comment
There's no disaster in quantitative easing in times of recession as long as the QA is in relatively small amounts and the money is not being used to finance the Federal deficit ---
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-quantitative-easing-definition-and-explanation-3305881
It helps maintain investment market liquidity and prevent runs on markets where investors want to withdraw cash (think Jimmy Stewart in It's a Wonderful Life)
However, as we get into the realm of trillions of dollars these are not small amounts by any means.

There are losers even with more limited QE ---
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-15198789
Outside investors in our National Debt get hit and become less likely to roll over their investments in our National Debt, thereby making the National Debt a bigger problem

Are there any losers from QE? QE pushes up the market price of government bonds and reduces the yield, or interest rate, paid out to investors. In other words, investors have to pay more to get the same income. 

If market interest rates are lower that depresses the value of a currency because it becomes less attractive to foreign investors. 

The US's programme of QE also kept the value of the dollar lower than it might otherwise have been, a factor not welcomed in some emerging economies. Since the end of QE in the US and with the prospect of interest rate rises there, the dollar has regained strength.

How to Mislead With Statistics

The Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security is Not Based Upon What Senior Citizens Buy

Social Security beneficiaries might not receive much of a cost-of-living adjustment next year — and some say recipients might not get anything at all.

COLA is linked to the consumer-price index, which has suffered lately because of low oil prices. Based on the CPI data between January and April of this year, COLA for next year would be zero, according to Mary Johnson, a Social Security policy analyst for The Senior Citizens League. There are still five months until the administration announces the COLA for 2021, which occurs in October. The adjustment in 2020 was considered minimal, at 1.6% this year, down from 2.8% in 2019. COLAs have averaged 1.4% over the last decade, down from the average 3% it was between 2000 and 2009.

. . .

The problem: Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment is linked to the consumer-price index for urban workers. There’s another subset of CPI, known as CPI-E, which tracks elderly spending. The difference is primarily in health care and housing. Those expenses, including Medicare premiums and homeowners’ insurance, grow rapidly year over year, but benefit adjustments don’t reflect that growth.

The coronavirus crisis could deepen the divide, especially as medical expenses drop in some areas — such as elective surgeries — but increase in others, including care for COVID-19 patients. “Older people are disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 crisis, often due to underlying medical conditions,” Johnson said. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as well as other leading figures, have urged older Americans to stay home and away from others as they are typically at a higher risk of complications from contracting the virus.

 

Annual average out-of-pocket expenses for prescription drugs were $1,102 in January 2000 and $3,875.76 in January 2020, according to the study — a 252% increase. Medicare Part B premiums jumped 218% during the same time frame, and home heating oil grew 172% during that period. Even the price of oranges grew more than double, from $0.61 in 2000 to $1.34 in 2020, a 120% increase. A retiree in 2000 with an average benefit of $816 a month would have $1,246.20 in 2020, but would need $380 more a month just to maintain that same level of buying power she had in 2000.

Continued in article

Jensen Comment
The 800-lb gorilla in all of this is what will happen to nursing home pricing and other long-term care nursing prices not covered by Medicare? Nursing home expenses are going through the roof as nursing homes adapt to the risks of the pandemic and increased attention given to nursing homes by regulators. It's pretty safe to predict that already very high nursing home prices in the USA are going to take another leap upward. There will be increases in Medicare fraud as heirs try to siphon off estate assets years early in order to get loved ones onto Medicaid that covers nursing home care for "poor people." Increased costs of Medicaid coverage is the most serious expense rise for our beleaguered state budgets.

Nursing home pricing trends 2004-2019 ---
https://www.genworth.com/aging-and-you/finances/cost-of-care/cost-of-care-trends-and-insights.html

MIT:  Health systems are in need of radical change; virtual care will lead the way
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/30/1000818/health-systems-are-in-need-of-radical-change-virtual-care-will-lead-the-way/

Jensen Comment
I think virtual care and virtual college education are waves of the future. I'm betting that one of the key players will be chat bots ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/000aaa/thetools.htm#Chatbots 

Covid-19 Links

Coronavirus street art in pictures ---
www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2020/apr/06/coronavirus-street-art-in-pictures

COVID-19 Milwaukee MKE ---
https://liblamp.uwm.edu/omeka/covid19mke/

This is the problem with economics. It's not a science. It's a social science at best and, more likely, it's really just a branch of politics. Krugman is clearly voicing a political opinion here, which has nothing to do with economics at all.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/01/10/2017/yo-krugman-deficits-still-dont-matter

Deficit Spending --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deficit_spending

. . .

When the outlay of a government (i.e., the total of its purchases of goods and services, transfers in grants to individuals and corporations, and its net interest payments) exceeds its tax revenues, the government budget is said to be in deficit; government spending in excess of tax receipts is known as deficit spending.

Governments usually issue bonds to match their deficits. They can be bought by its Central Bank through open market operations. Otherwise the debt issuance can increase the level of (i) public debt, (ii) private sector net worth, (iii) debt service (interest payments), and (iv) interest rates. (See Crowding out below.) Deficit spending may, however, be consistent with public debt remaining stable as a proportion of GDP, depending on the level of GDP growth.

The opposite of a budget deficit is a budget surplus; in this case, tax revenues exceed government purchases and transfer payments. For the public sector to be in deficit implies that the private sector (domestic and foreign) is in surplus. An increase in public indebtedness must necessarily therefore correspond to an equal decrease in private sector net indebtedness. In other words, deficit spending permits the private sector to accumulate net worth.

On average, through the economic cycle, most governments have tended to run budget deficits, as can be seen from the large debt balances accumulated by governments across the world.

Keynesian effect[edit]

Following John Maynard Keynes, many economists recommend deficit spending to moderate or end a recession, especially a severe one. When the economy has high unemployment, an increase in government purchases creates a market for business output, creating income and encouraging increases in consumer spending, which creates further increases in the demand for business output. (This is the multiplier effect.) This raises the real gross domestic product (GDP) and the employment of labour, and if all else is constant, lowers the unemployment rate. (The connection between demand for GDP and unemployment is called Okun's law.)

The increased size of the market, due to government deficits, can further stimulate the economy by raising business profitability and spurring optimism, which encourages private fixed investment in factories, machines, and the like to rise. This accelerator effect stimulates demand further and encourages rising employment.

Similarly, running a government surplus or reducing its deficit reduces consumer and business spending and raises unemployment. This can lower the inflation rate. Any use of the government deficit to steer the macro-economy is called fiscal policy.

A deficit does not simply stimulate demand. If private investment is stimulated, that increases the ability of the economy to supply output in the long run. Also, if the government's deficit is spent on such things as infrastructure, basic research, public health, and education, that can also increase potential output in the long run. Finally, the high demand that a government deficit provides may actually allow greater growth of potential supply, following Verdoorn's law.

Deficit spending may create inflation, or encourage existing inflation to persist. For example, in the United States Vietnam-war era deficits encouraged inflation. This is especially true at low unemployment rates. But government deficits are not the only cause of inflation: It can arise due to such supply-side shocks as the oil crises of the 1970s and inflation left over from the past (e.g., inflationary expectations and the price/wage spiral).

If equilibrium is located on the classical range of the supply graph, an increase in government spending will lead to inflation without affecting unemployment. There must also be enough money circulating in the system to allow inflation to persist, so that inflation depends on monetary policy.

 

But running big deficits is no longer harmless, let alone desirable
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/09/opinion/deficits-matter-again.html

Paul Krugman, January 9, 2017

Deficits matter always, not just when Republicans occupy the White House

Paul Krugman, January 10, 2017

https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/01/deficits-matter-always-not-just-when-republicans-occupy-white-house/

Deficits Matter More When Republicans Control the White House

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/articles/01/10/2017/yo-krugman-deficits-still-dont-matter

Now, it seems, with a little over a week until Donald Trump assumes the presidency, Krugman is saying deficits suddenly matter again and that Trump's plans will lead to crowding out of private investment.

This is the problem with economics. It's not a science. It's a social science at best and, more likely, it's really just a branch of politics. Krugman is clearly voicing a political opinion here, which has nothing to do with economics at all.

The only fiscal thing to fear is deficit fear itself
Paul. Krugman, April 27, 2020

Almost a decade has passed since I published a column, “Myths of Austerity,” warning that deficit alarmism would delay recovery from the Great Recession — which it did. Unfortunately, that kind of alarmism seems to be making a comeback.

You can see that comeback in the gradually increasing number of news analyses emphasizing how much debt we’ll run up dealing with the Covid-19 crisis. You can also see it in the rhetoric of politicians like Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, who is blocking aid to beleaguered state and local governments because, he says, it would cost too much.

So this seems like a good time to emphasize two key facts. One is economic: While we will run very big budget deficits over the next couple of years, they will do little if any harm. The other is that whatever they may say, very few prominent figures in politics or the media are genuine deficit hawks, who are actually worried about the consequences of rising government debt. What we mainly have, instead, are deficit peacocks and deficit vultures.

The term “deficit peacocks” was coined by the Center for American Progress for people who preen and posture about fighting deficits without offering realistic policy proposals. I’d broaden the term to include what I used to call Very Serious People — those who inveigh against the evils of debt not because they’ve done a careful analysis but because they imagine that it makes them sound earnest and tough-minded.

The glory days of deficit peacocks were the early teens, an era in which people like Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles were lionized by the news media. As Vox’s Ezra Klein noted at the time, for some reason “the usual rules of reportorial neutrality don’t apply when it comes to the deficit”; the wisdom and virtue of deficit warriors were simply taken for granted.

 

We haven’t heard much from the deficit peacocks in recent years, even though the budget deficit, which declined sharply during the Obama years, soared again under Donald Trump. Funny how that works. But you can be sure they’ll be back in force if Joe Biden wins this November.

What about deficit vultures? That’s the term I’ve been using for politicians who exploit real or imagined fiscal distress to feed a reactionary policy agenda.

After the last crisis, conservatives used deficits as an excuse to cut social programs — for example, a number of states made it much harder to collect unemployment benefits. This time around, McConnell and Trump are trying to exploit deficit fears to force state governments to downsize, undermine (and possibly privatize) the post office and more.

 

Continued in article

Jensen Comment
In my opinion, and I'm a bookkeeper deficit peacock rather than an economist, is that it's not so much whether there's a budget deficit as much as it matters regarding the size of the deficit. In basketball the center player's deficit is not so serious when the opponent's center is an inch taller that your center, but it gets more serious when that deficit at the center post if over 12 inches for an opponent who also has extremely long arms and the speed of a gazelle.

And now in 2020 the USA will be spending tens of trillions above what was budgeted for 2020 by federal and state governments. The states, some on the verge of bankruptcy before the pandemic, will most certainly go bankrupt unless the federal government showers them with tens of trillions of dollars --- which is probably what will happen in spite of reluctance of the GOP to let the most fiscally mismanaged states (think Illinois, New Jersey, etc.) have a bonanza in aid due to the pandemic.

Unlike the states, the federal government will never go bankrupt, because it controls the money supply of the USA. When ultimately spending tens of trillions above budget it sounds simple for the USA's federal government to add trillions more to its current 24 trillion in booked debt (and 120+ trillion unbooked entitlements) to cover the added 2020 pandemic expenses. But whoa, the investors in our 24 trillion National Debt are saying "no more." The fear is that, when the 2020 deficit cannot be financed with more debt or taxes, our brilliant elected officials in Washington DC will turn to helicopter money ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money

Ray Dalio --- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Dalio

Trump-Hating Billionaire Ray Dalio says investors would be 'pretty crazy to hold government bonds' right now as central banks continue to print money ---
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-crazy-hold-bonds-now-central-banks-printing-money-2020-4-1029095649
Good financial advice even though it's not very patriotic

Buyers needed for added trillions of planned US government debt ---
https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/buyers-needed-for-3-trillion-of-us-government-debt

China, Until Recently America's Largest Creditor, Won't Be Funding Your Stimulus Check ---
https://www.newsweek.com/china-treasury-stimulus-check-debt-us-1499541

Jensen Comment
Not many buyers want to buy trillions of new USA debt. So the Federal Reserve will buy it.
Hey isn't that like moving this debt from the Federal government's left pocket to its right pocket?
The least China could do is make some of our helicopter parts cheaper ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helicopter_money                                                         

One National Debt buyer dominates all others --- The Federal Reserve (think of it as a debtor investing in his own debt)
But the Federal Reserve is "printing money" in a limited way (QE is not like printing helicopter money)  to buy much of the debt under the fancy name of Quantitative Easing ---
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing

Jensen Comment
There's no disaster in quantitative easing in times of recession as long as the QA is in relatively small amounts and the money is not being used to finance the Federal deficit ---
https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-quantitative-easing-definition-and-explanation-3305881
It helps maintain investment market liquidity and prevent runs on markets where investors want to withdraw cash (think Jimmy Stewart in It's a Wonderful Life)
However, as we get into the realm of trillions of dollars these are not small amounts by any means.

There are losers even with more limited QE ---
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-15198789
Outside investors in our National Debt get hit and become less likely to roll over their investments in our National Debt, thereby making the National Debt a bigger problem

Are there any losers from QE? QE pushes up the market price of government bonds and reduces the yield, or interest rate, paid out to investors. In other words, investors have to pay more to get the same income. 

If market interest rates are lower that depresses the value of a currency because it becomes less attractive to foreign investors. 

The US's programme of QE also kept the value of the dollar lower than it might otherwise have been, a factor not welcomed in some emerging economies. Since the end of QE in the US and with the prospect of interest rate rises there, the dollar has regained strength.

March 16, 2020
Federal Reserve cuts rates to zero and launches massive $700 billion quantitative easing program (since expanded greatly)---
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/federal-reserve-cuts-rates-to-zero-and-launches-massive-700-billion-quantitative-easing-program.html

The bottom line is that to a point QE is not as inflationary as helicopter money, but only to a point under three trillion dollars and counting ---
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/2900/inflation/inflation-and-quantitative-easing/

See the comments at
https://www.quora.com/Does-quantitative-easing-lead-to-inflation?share=1

Small businesses might need $500 billion a month, Fed official says ---
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-bostic/feds-bostic-u-s-small-business-may-need-up-to-500-billion-monthly-in-support-through-crisis-idUSKBN21Y2MG

No sweat:  Crank up the printing presses and gas up the helicopters

The Atlantic:  We Need to Start Tossing Money Out of Helicopters It’s the best option in such extreme circumstances ---
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/we-need-start-tossing-money-out-helicopters/608968/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=politics-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20200331&silverid-ref=NTk4MzY1OTg0MzY5S0

Jensen Comment
I say forget the helicopters. Let's load up the B1 bombers with money instead of bombs and adopt all the $100 trillion in spending proposed by Bernie Sanders.
The USA will go down in history as the land of milk and honey, although the "going down" part is becoming a short-term forecast.

Burl Ives sings the Big Rock Candy Mountain ---
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWminVCg3TA

How to Mislead With Statistics

CDC:  USA Media Over Reporting Coronavirus Deaths by 60%
https://www.blabber.buzz/conservative-news/867450-cdc-data-shows-coronavirus-deaths-actually-37308-nearly-half-what-media-is-reporting-special?utm_source=c-alrt&utm_medium=c-alrt-email&utm_term=c-alrt-GI&utm_content=9GHGkdpWhYe83EFyZJjkFO8_21LdfGwaVfyZOKuqu1nQ.A

As of May 1, the CDC website states that 37,308 people died from the Wuhan coronavirus, which includes confirmed and presumed deaths from the pathogen.

The data also shows that the coronavirus pandemic peaked in the U.S. the week of April 11.

Additionally, the number of coronavirus deaths have been decreasing since April 25, with about 93% of all coronavirus deaths happening to individuals over 55 years old.

As Newsmax journalist John Cardillo noted, the data reported on by the media and Worldometer is a “scam” for likely attributing other causes of death to inflate coronavirus fatalities

Jensen Comment
I can think of trillions of reasons for overstating the deaths, although in truth much of the problem may be due to careless reporting errors. The same thing has happened for over 100 years with pneumonia. Pneumonia is known as the old peoples' friend because when people suffering with cancer or other terminal illnesses experience weakened immune systems the final cause of death is often pneumonia. It would've been a total waste of money all those years to have diverted 60% of the medical research money to preventing pneumonia when that medical research money was better spent on cancer and other terminal illnesses that led to the weakened immune systems.

Of course pneumonia among young and healthy people was a much bigger problem before penicillin and other antibiotics.

There are many reasons (think stimulus money) for over reporting Covid-19 deaths, but the above article has huge statistical errors ---
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/cdc-death-figures/

How to Mislead With Statistics (What the attention/advertising seeking media usually ignores)

Coronavirus: Why are international comparisons difficult?
https://www.bbc.com/news/52311014
Thank you Arnold Barkman for the heads up.

Everyone wants to know how well their country is tackling coronavirus, compared with others. But you have to make sure you're comparing the same things.

The United States, for example, has far more Covid-19 deaths than any other country - as of 20 April, a total of over 40,000 deaths.

But the US has a population of 330 million people.

If you take the five largest countries in Western Europe - the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain - their combined population is roughly 320 million.

And the total number of registered coronavirus deaths from those five countries, as of 20 April, was over 85,000 - more than twice that of the US.

So, individual statistics don't tell the full story.

For comparisons to be useful, says Rowland Kao, professor of data science at the University of Edinburgh, there are two broad issues to consider.

"Does the underlying data mean the same thing? And does it make sense to compare two sets of numbers if the epidemiology [all the other factors surrounding the spread of the disease] is different?"

Counting deaths

Let's look at some of the numbers first. There are differences in how countries record Covid-19 deaths.

France, for example, includes deaths in care homes in the headline numbers it produces every day, but the daily headline figures for England only include deaths in hospitals.

There's also no accepted international standard for how you measure deaths, or their causes.

Does somebody need to have been tested for coronavirus to count towards the statistics, or are the suspicions of a doctor enough? Does the virus need to be the main cause of death, or does any mention on a death certificate count?

Are you really comparing like with like?

Death rates

There is a lot of focus on death rates, but there are different ways of measuring them too.

One is the ratio of deaths to confirmed cases - of all the people who test positive for coronavirus, how many go on to die?

But different countries are testing in very different ways. The UK has mainly tested people who are ill enough to be admitted to hospital. That can make the death rate appear much higher than in a country which had a wider testing programme.

The more testing a country carries out, the more it will find people who have coronavirus with only mild symptoms, or perhaps no symptoms at all.

Most cases are never counted at all!

Continued in article

 

Jensen Comment
There are of course giant nations more populated than the USA. China has 1.5 billion people, but it's suspected that China cheats with statistics when it suits a purpose. India has almost as many people but is way down the list of confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths ---
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Reasons are not clear, but India and Africa are mysteriously immune to coronavirus infections to date

Cuomo Finds Way to Discourage Future Out-of-State Crisis Volunteers
New York was hit particularly hard. Now, those that spent more than 14 days in the Empire State will be required to pay state income tax, even if they’re being paid by entities in other states for their work in New York.
https://legalinsurrection.com/2020/05/cuomo-health-care-workers-who-volunteered-to-help-with-covid-19-must-pay-state-income-tax/
Jensen Questions
In 2001 did George Pataki tax out-of-state firefighters and other emergency helpers after the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center?
Does a  professor in New York on paid sabbatical leave by a Texas university have to pay New York income taxes even though no organization in New York paid compensation or expense support?

May 7, 2020 reply from Beryl Simonson

This is the old no good deed goes unpunished routine. If you work in NY regardless of from where you are paid or you live, you pay tax in NY (and don’t forget about NY City tax). NY could certainly exempt emergency responders in this pandemic from NY taxation. And not to pick on NY, most states are the same. Along the same lines, although a different part of the rules, It is one of the reasons as an RSM partner that I paid tax in about 40 states, few of which I ever entered.

Beryl

Beryl D. Simonson CPA

Jensen Comment
Thanks Beryl,
If you take a sabbatical leave or do volunteer work in New Hampshire we won't tax your income.

This begs the question of taxation for your distance education services. Suppose you teach online at Trinity University in Texas during this pandemic, and some of your online students are temporarily home in the State of New York during the lockdown? Should you eventually file a 2020 New York income tax return even if your employer is Trinity University?

You don't have to answer this Beryl if it begins to look like getting advice that you normally charge for to cover your taxes.

Updates on Medical Insurance

None right now except to say that Joe Biden promises both weak enforcement of borders along with free healthcare for all illegal immigrants.

Open immigration can’t exist with a strong social safety net; if you’re going to assure healthcare and a decent income to everyone, you can’t make that offer global ---
Paul Krugman
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/724654-open-immigration-can-t-exist-with-a-strong-social-safety-net

Bob Jensen's threads on health insurance ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Health.htm

Bob Jensen's Tidbits Archives ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/tidbitsdirectory.htm 

Bob Jensen's Pictures and Stories
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Pictures.htm

Summary of Major Accounting Scandals --- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accounting_scandals

Bob Jensen's threads on such scandals:

Bob Jensen's threads on audit firm litigation and negligence ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Fraud001.htm

Current and past editions of my newsletter called Fraud Updates ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudUpdates.htm

Enron --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudEnron.htm

Rotten to the Core --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudRotten.htm

American History of Fraud --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudAmericanHistory.htm

Bob Jensen's fraud conclusions ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudConclusion.htm

Bob Jensen's threads on auditor professionalism and independence are at
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Fraud001c.htm

Bob Jensen's threads on corporate governance are at
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/Fraud001.htm#Governance 

Shielding Against Validity Challenges in Plato's Cave ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/TheoryTAR.htm

·     With a Rejoinder from the 2010 Senior Editor of The Accounting Review (TAR), Steven J. Kachelmeier

·     With Replies in Appendix 4 to Professor Kachemeier by Professors Jagdish Gangolly and Paul Williams

·     With Added Conjectures in Appendix 1 as to Why the Profession of Accountancy Ignores TAR

·     With Suggestions in Appendix 2 for Incorporating Accounting Research into Undergraduate Accounting Courses

Shielding Against Validity Challenges in Plato's Cave  --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/TheoryTAR.htm
By Bob Jensen

What went wrong in accounting/accountics research?  ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/theory01.htm#WhatWentWrong

The Sad State of Accountancy Doctoral Programs That Do Not Appeal to Most Accountants ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/theory01.htm#DoctoralPrograms

AN ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION OF RESEARCH CONTRIBUTIONS BY THE ACCOUNTING REVIEW: 1926-2005 ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/395wpTAR/Web/TAR395wp.htm#_msocom_1

Bob Jensen's threads on accounting theory ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/theory01.htm

Systemic problems of accountancy (especially the vegetable nutrition paradox) that probably will never be solved ---
http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/FraudConclusion.htm#BadNews

Bob Jensen's economic crisis messaging http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/2008Bailout.htm

Bob Jensen's threads --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/threads.htm

Bob Jensen's Home Page --- http://faculty.trinity.edu/rjensen/